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The EUR/USD currency pair turned around and this time headed downward. What is happening in the world, in the US, in the White House, and in Trump's mind resembles some kind of farce. Regular readers know that we often use the words "farce" or "circus" whenever Trump becomes the President of the United States. How else can one react to the statements of the American President? Previously, Trump alternated between contradictory rhetoric over separate days; now, in a single speech, he can make a dozen conflicting statements. If earlier Trump limited himself to mere insults aimed at those who displeased him, he now also initiates legal investigations and invents various pretexts for dismissals or even for military operations on foreign territory. Various statistical portals, like YouGov, previously recorded about 15 false statements per day from the American president, but they have likely lost count since it is now difficult to determine which statements are false. Or are all of them false? It seems that Trump's rhetoric is a form of NLP (neuro-linguistic programming) aimed at impacting the subconscious through verbal methods.
Interestingly, the market eagerly processes each new statement from Trump. As the tone and nature of these statements change at the speed of light, we see constant price jumps on the charts, alternating between up and down. In other words, the market repeatedly steps on the same rake— it believes Trump. Although the term "stepping on" was valid during the first term of the Republican in the White House. Now the market is well aware of all the methods used by the controversial businessman, yet it continues to jump from a running start onto the same rakes.
Naturally, for traders, the current time is extremely unattractive for trading. Firstly, the market completely ignores any macroeconomic background. Secondly, the market ignores any fundamental background. Thirdly, the market disregards all technical factors. All market movements now depend on Trump's statements and, occasionally, on official Iranian figures. This means that such events cannot be predicted in advance. Moreover, it is impossible not only to predict what Trump will say but also when he will say it. For example, all traders know that the Non-Farm Payroll report will be released today. Some may expect a strong figure, others a weak one, while some may choose not to take risks and just exit the market. In the case of Trump, the last scenario is impossible, since he gives speeches or posts on social media five to ten times a day.
Similarly, the market cannot physically know when Trump or Tehran will strike the next blow against enemy infrastructure. The result is the unpredictable swings that no one on Earth could forecast except for Trump himself or high-ranking officials in Iran and other Middle Eastern countries.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 3 is 83 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1463 and 1.1629 on Friday. The upper channel of linear regression has turned downward, indicating a change in trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and formed a "bullish" divergence, which once again warns of the completion of the downward trend.
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, prompted by geopolitics. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; however, for over a month, the market has been focusing solely on geopolitics, making all other factors virtually irrelevant. If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1463 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1629 and 1.1719. For a stronger upward movement, the geopolitical backdrop needs to begin stabilizing.
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