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Yesterday, equity indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 0.10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.18%.
European stocks are set for their largest advance since 2022 after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran restoring access to the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude fell by 15%, while futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 jumped by 5.3%, and US equity futures also rallied sharply. This will be the biggest gain for the pan-European index since March 2022. Since the start of the Middle East war in late February, the Stoxx Europe 600 has declined by about 6.8%.
At the same time, European natural gas futures plunged by as much as 20%, reaching the lowest level since the start of the conflict. Expect traders to sell oil and defense stocks after the opening bell and buy names that were most damaged during the crisis, such as financials and materials.
While this may mark the end of one episode for financial markets, the global economy's inflation shock is only beginning, especially for food and commodities. The energy price drop driven by the ceasefire will be an important catalyst for Europe, which has been hit hard by high inflation. Lower oil and gas prices should reduce production costs for many companies and could help revive consumer demand, particularly in energy-intensive sectors like transport and heavy industry. However, these effects will be transitory. Even if a truce holds, it will take time to rebuild broken supply chains and repair damaged energy infrastructure.
It should be understood that uncertainty remains despite positive expectations. The US-Iran agreement must still be implemented, and any breach could trigger renewed tensions and reversing commodity price moves. The underlying causes of the conflict are deep, and stabilizing the Middle East may require substantial time and effort.
Overall, prospects for equity markets are improving, but sustainable gains will depend on the geopolitical trajectory, the effectiveness of anti-inflation measures and companies' ability to adapt to the new economic realities.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,801. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $6,819. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,837, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,784. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,769 and could open the way to $6,756.
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