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The price test at 1.1703 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the upside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1703 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, prompting the execution of Scenario #2 to sell, resulting in a 30-pip decline in the pair.
Insurmountable disagreements that arose during negotiations on a peace treaty between the United States and Iran prompted a decline in euro interest yesterday. The sudden escalation in diplomatic relations, following earlier promising but non-final signs of rapprochement, returned demand for the dollar.
In the first half of the day today, attention will focus on the release of German macroeconomic indicators, the engine of the Eurozone economy. Information regarding changes in industrial production is expected to be released. This key indicator serves as a gauge of the state of German industry and provides insight into the pace of economic recovery or a slowdown. Concurrently, data on Germany's trade balance will also be published. Historically, Germany's strong position regarding a positive trade balance remains an important factor. These releases could exert additional pressure on the euro if the data turns out to be significantly worse than economists' forecasts.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy the euro at a price around 1.1672 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1711. At 1.1711, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Only in the case of positive data can we expect the euro to rise. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1653 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1672 and 1.1711 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1653 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S.-Iran relations worsen. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1672 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.1653 and 1.1614 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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