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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair returned on Thursday to the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465. A rebound from this zone today would favor the U.S. dollar and a slight decline toward the support level of 1.3341–1.3352. A consolidation above the 1.3437–1.3465 level would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539.
The wave situation is once again turning "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous peak, while the most recent completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost full dominance in the market for two months, but now the geopolitical background is becoming more favorable, immediately boosting bulls' confidence. The hourly chart also shows that in recent weeks, the pair has been moving sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465.
The news background on Thursday supported the bulls, but neither their strength nor that of the economic reports was enough to break through the key level of 1.3437–1.3465. This zone continues to hold back further upward movement, so GBP/USD remains in a horizontal channel for now. The U.S. GDP report for the fourth quarter only allowed bulls to return to this zone. The economy showed growth of just 0.5%, with each subsequent estimate revised lower. Recall that the initial estimate indicated U.S. economic growth of 1.4%. Today, attention should be paid to the inflation report. Traders expect it to rise to 3.3% in March, but it could come in even higher due to a sharp increase in energy prices. Even 3.3% is quite high and could support the U.S. dollar, as market expectations may turn more "hawkish" regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. If the actual figure is even higher, further dollar growth is likely. However, geopolitics should not be overlooked, as it currently plays a decisive role in shaping trader sentiment.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above a descending trend channel, which has not yet given bulls any real advantage. The pound rose to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3439, but this level has already triggered two reversals before. Although geopolitics is improving, bulls now need to break through 1.3439 to count on a trend. A consolidation above this level would increase the probability of continued growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3664. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,845, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 51,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced longs, leading to a strong imbalance. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is unsurprising given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the sole driver of U.S. dollar strength.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
The economic calendar for April 10 contains two entries, with inflation being the key one. The news flow may influence market sentiment on Friday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling opportunities were possible after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3465 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3341–1.3352. These positions can still be held today. Buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from the 1.3341–1.3352 level with a target of 1.3437–1.3465, or after a breakout and close above 1.3437–1.3465 with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.
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