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The GBP/USD pair has paused its upward movement ahead of the important U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, but remains stable near its highest levels since late February. Current quotes in the 1.3420–1.3430 level point to the possibility of further growth.
The CPI report is expected to show an increase in inflation in March, driven by a surge in oil prices caused by the war. This could strengthen the Federal Reserve's position to keep interest rates unchanged. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are also supporting the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on GBP/USD.
Iran has suspended shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in response to regional conflicts, increasing risks and supporting oil prices. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of mismanaging oil resources passing through the Strait of Hormuz and violating previously reached agreements. He also warned of renewed strikes if the agreement fails. This indicates that escalation risks remain and continue to support oil prices.
At the same time, traders are lowering expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, pricing in 30–40 basis points by the end of the year—significantly different from the Federal Reserve's earlier signals, which pointed to rate cuts by the end of the year and another reduction in 2027.
Thus, the current situation calls for caution when making trading decisions, given the support for bulls in the GBP/USD pair and the potential risks of further downside.
From a technical perspective, indicators are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index has moved into positive territory, signaling an advantage for bulls. Their immediate target is the 1.3485 level.
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