13.04.202606:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on April 13? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. The only report on existing home sales in the US is of no significance in the current circumstances. With the chances of ending the war in the Middle East evaporating on Sunday, the market will once again react to developments in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. It must be said that the situation is not improving.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Monday, the speeches of European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos and Federal Reserve representative Stephen Miran could have been highlighted if they had any significance. However, there is no meaning, as the market will once again respond only to geopolitical events. In principle, the news is already out. Trump has decided to close the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian vessels so that Tehran cannot use it for oil exports either. Therefore, oil prices are rising again, and the market is once again seeking safety in the dollar.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs could trade in either direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today from the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded from the range of 1.3380-1.3386. We still do not see grounds for strong and sustained growth of the US dollar (assuming all factors, not just geopolitics), but in the near term, geopolitics may again provide invaluable support to the US dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.