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The test of the price at 1.1722 occurred when the MACD indicator had advanced significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.
Not surprisingly, geopolitical tensions have once again been reflected in the financial markets. The US dollar rose sharply against the euro. Investors, exhibiting typical behavior during periods of uncertainty and conflict, traditionally seek refuge in the American currency, viewing it as a more reliable asset.
Following intensive, but unfortunately unsuccessful, negotiations between the United States and Iran, the key issues threatening US security and stability remain unresolved. The fate of the Strait of Hormuz—a critically important shipping route through which a significant portion of the world's oil is transported—is particularly concerning. Tehran has refused to unblock it. Concurrently, progress in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue remains quite limited. The inability of the parties to reach an agreement on uranium enrichment issues fuels concerns about Tehran's possible desire to possess nuclear weapons. This uncertainty creates a favorable environment for further escalation of military confrontation, allowing the US dollar to exhibit growth.
Since no significant data for the Eurozone is expected in the first half of the day today, it is quite possible that the European currency will remain under pressure.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1698 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1729. At the point of 1.1729, I plan to exit the market and sell euros immediately on a pullback, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be anticipated within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1683 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1698 and 1.1729 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1683 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be the level of 1.1649, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return as US-Iran relations deteriorate. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1698 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease towards the opposite levels of 1.1683 and 1.1649 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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