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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which has been developing since January of last year, but the wave structure now looks quite ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and focusing on the simplest and smallest wave structures to make short-term forecasts, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade standard "five-three" patterns.
On the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave. If this is indeed the case, then this structure has already been completed, and a corrective phase of at least three waves is currently forming. Therefore, in the near future, we can expect a rise in the pair, but within a correction relative to the last trend segment. For now, recent wave structures do not fit well into the higher-level count, but the situation should become clearer over time. The euro's recovery may continue toward the levels of 1.1745 and 1.1824.
The EUR/USD pair declined by 25 basis points on Monday. Thus, the US dollar gained only a quarter of a cent—an outcome that can be considered quite favorable overall.
Why is that? Over the weekend, negotiations between Iran and the United States failed, though they were not formally concluded. As soon as it became clear that a peace agreement would not be reached anytime soon, both sides resumed aggressive rhetoric. In particular, Donald Trump threatened to impose a military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—this time targeting Iranian ships and oil. Iran responded by expressing readiness to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would further complicate oil exports from the region.
As a result, the shortage of oil and gas on global markets could become even more pronounced, and prices may continue to rise. Therefore, in my view, the market had every reason to sell EUR/USD on Monday. Selling did occur—but it was relatively weak.
This may indicate that the market is growing tired of the geopolitical factor. For two months, most currency instruments have moved primarily based on developments in the Middle East. This cannot continue indefinitely. Over the past week, demand for the euro has increased, even though there are still no signs of the conflict ending.
Euro buying began as early as Monday, when the world was preparing for potential strikes on Iran. News of a temporary ceasefire only emerged late Wednesday—and even then, it was violated the same day by all parties involved. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that new negative developments in the Middle East could renew demand for the US dollar.
Based on this EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the short term it is in a corrective phase. The corrective wave structure appears largely complete and could only become more complex and extended if a stable ceasefire is established between Iran, the United States, Israel, and all other countries in the Middle East.
Otherwise, I believe a new downward wave structure could begin forming from current levels.
On the lower timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. It is best to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than strictly labeling every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
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