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The price test at 159.59 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 30 pips.
Despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by both the U.S. and Iran, as well as the failed initial peace negotiations, the ceasefire has been maintained, providing good support for the yen against the dollar yesterday. The markets appear to be demonstrating cautious optimism driven by the preservation of this fragile ceasefire. The absence of large-scale escalations, despite the rhetoric and previous complications, has allowed investors to reassess their positions. Yesterday marked a return of interest in safe havens, primarily the Japanese yen, which traditionally acts as a safe-haven currency during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
However, today's data revealing a 2.0% decline in Japan's industrial production led to a rise in USD/JPY. The report from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry showed an unexpectedly sharp drop in production, which dealt a serious blow to forecasts for the national economy's recovery. Industrial firms appear to be facing more challenging conditions than expected, reigniting fears about slowing global demand and its implications for Japanese exports. The market reacted promptly. The USD/JPY pair, which had previously shown relative stability, sharply moved upward. Investors, concerned about the prospects of the Japanese economy, hurried to reassess their positions, reducing their yen positions and increasing their U.S. dollar positions.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 159.29 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 159.60 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.60, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and substantial dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.07 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 159.29 and 159.60.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 159.07 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 158.71, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.29 when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 159.07 and 158.71.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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