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On Tuesday, gold (XAU/USD) reached a new daily high but faced difficulty continuing its upward movement and remained below the $4,800 level. Although peace talks between the US and Iran failed over the weekend, investors appear confident that opportunities for a diplomatic solution still exist and that discussions will continue. In addition, uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate changes is weighing on the dollar, which in turn is supporting gold following its recent rebound from the $4,620 level.
US Vice President JD Vance expressed cautious optimism regarding negotiations with Iran, stating in an interview with Fox News that significant progress had been made, although a breakout is still far off. He emphasized that a framework for a comprehensive agreement could become a reality if Iran takes the next step. This optimism, in turn, supports a positive risk sentiment and weakens the dollar, which is favorable for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.
Meanwhile, the energy shock caused by escalating conflict in the Middle East is intensifying concerns about a potential increase in inflationary pressure. Additionally, data released on Friday showed that US consumer inflation in March rose to its highest level in nearly four years due to a surge in energy prices linked to the war, shifting attention toward the possibility of interest rate hikes this year. However, CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 30% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which further weakens the dollar and supports gold.
These factors contributed to XAU/USD rising to the $4,800 level over the past hour, although this increase does not indicate strong bullish enthusiasm amid ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced the start of a blockade of this strategically important waterway by the US Navy and pledged to destroy Iranian military vessels approaching it. Iran responded with threats against all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. These geopolitical risks continue to restrain aggressive bearish positioning on the US dollar, thereby limiting further gains in the precious metal.
From a technical perspective, oscillators have not yet fully shifted into positive territory, so bulls should proceed with caution.
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