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Last Friday, equity indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 1.20%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 1.52%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 1.79%.
Asian equity markets opened sharply lower today but then pared losses as investors, putting aside weekend-renewed tensions in the Middle East, refocused on fundamentals and the prospect of further talks.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 0.8%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index recovered all losses suffered during nearly two months of the Iran war. US index futures also clawed back earlier declines, up about 1.1%. Oil and the dollar retreated from intraday highs.
All of this suggests investors are positioning on the view that the peak of uncertainty may be behind us. Improved odds for diplomacy, a resumption of activity in the AI space and heightened focus on corporate fundamentals ahead of earnings season are supporting sentiment.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tension, the market tone is far from a full risk-off. Investors, seeing a potential opportunity given that both sides remain open to talks, are taking advantage by adding long exposure. Rapidly changing headlines do not deter traders from holding leveraged positions — few want to be on the wrong side of the move. That said, uncertainty rose somewhat after US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered conflicting takes on the next phase of the conflict, raising doubts about the outlook for peace talks before the ceasefire expires.
The key focus remains whether talks between the United States and Iran will take place. It seems unlikely Iran will cancel talks, so the odds of the bullish rally resuming remain reasonably good.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the main task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,087. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $7,106. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $7,122, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,066. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,049 and could open the way to $7,033.
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