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Yesterday, equity indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.80%, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 1.63%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.16%.
After reports that Iran offered the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, equity futures rallied, and oil prices eased, reducing concerns about the stalled process of resuming peace talks. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose by 1.7%. Brent crude eased to $106.50 per barrel, off about 1% after earlier intraday gains of roughly 2.5%. Reopening the Hormuz route would allow transit of oil and gas through this key Middle Eastern waterway.
Media reports indicate a document, relayed via Pakistani mediators, contemplates extending the ceasefire so the parties can work toward a final end to hostilities. Nuclear talks would come later, only after the US lifts the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Every hint of a deal lifts markets, but the positive reaction to each new announcement is fading as traders tire of the same story without confirmation. Sentiment shifted after attempts to resume talks over the weekend failed and President Donald Trump cancelled a trip by his envoys. Tehran responded that it will not negotiate under threat and under a blockade of Hormuz.
Elsewhere, Treasuries ticked down modestly on Monday, giving back part of Friday's gains after the Justice Department closed an inquiry into the Fed. The 10-year benchmark yield rose by two basis points to 4.32%. The conclusion of the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell cleared the path for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, strengthening speculation that interest rate cuts could resume by year-end.
In the near term, markets will likely remain on edge as major central banks, including the Bank of Japan, begin policy meetings — the first of which take place tomorrow. While investors expect key central banks to keep interest rates steady, traders will be watching for any signs that officials are increasingly worried about inflation risks from oil supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,174. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a surge to $7,190. Equally a priority for bulls is to hold control above $7,210, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,156. A break below that level would likely push the instrument back to $7,138 and could open the way to $7,125.
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