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The test of the price at 1.3547 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair only dropped by 15 pips.
The emergence of information about Donald Trump's reaction to Iran's latest initiative regarding the nuclear program had a noticeable impact on risk assets, including the British pound, leading to a decline in the GBP/USD pair. Apparently, the US president's dissatisfaction with Tehran's latest steps has led to increased demand for the US dollar, which investors often perceive as a safe haven during periods of geopolitical instability. Within the context of global economics and politics, such statements and responses hold significant potential. Tensions in the Middle East, closely related to Iran's nuclear program, traditionally affect not only energy markets but also currency values. The future course of events will depend on the outcome of negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as on the role of the international community as a mediator – in this case, Pakistan.
As for the data, today is likely to pass under the sign of relative calm for the British currency. The first half of the day will not bring substantial macroeconomic reports from the United Kingdom that could set a new direction for the British pound. This situation helps maintain the trends that formed on the previous trading day.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3528 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3557 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3557, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). A strong rise in the pound can only be anticipated after good news from the Middle East. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3508 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3528 and 1.3557 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3508 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3486 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3528 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3508 and 1.3486 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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