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The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a corrective retracement. The price is approaching bullish imbalance 13, but this pattern has not yet been validated. Thus, no buy signal has been formed yet, but it may appear in the coming days. This week is difficult to forecast, as Wednesday and Thursday will bring a large number of important reports, along with meetings of all three central banks relevant to EUR/USD and GBP/USD traders. As a result, trading activity and market volatility may increase significantly, while the direction of the pair may change frequently. However, based on the current situation, further US dollar growth toward imbalance 13 remains possible. There have been no significant geopolitical developments in recent days, while the first key event is scheduled for tomorrow evening—the FOMC meeting. Ahead of this event, bearish pressure is increasing, which may indicate hawkish market expectations. Experts do not expect a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in April, but Jerome Powell's rhetoric may become more restrictive. In any case, without major news, I do not expect the pair to decline below imbalance 13.
In the current situation, traders can only wait for the reaction at imbalance 13. There are no other clear buying zones at the moment, and the trend remains bullish. Thus, only buy signals are of interest. There are no bearish patterns at present. The previous buy signal from imbalance 12 worked well, with the euro gaining approximately 270 points. These positions could have been closed with solid profits. There are currently no grounds for selling.
It should also be noted that the entire strengthening of the US dollar over the past one and a half to two months has been driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed on a ceasefire, bearish pressure eased, and bulls resumed buying activity. At present, the truce remains fragile but intact. I have repeatedly stated that I do not expect the bullish trend to end, despite the break of key structural lows. The price movement over the past two months could develop into a bearish trend only if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. However, markets often price in the most pessimistic scenario in advance, attempting to anticipate the most extreme outcomes. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In this case, bears no longer hold an advantage.
The overall technical picture is clear. First, the price showed no reaction to imbalance 11. Second, the price reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has been formed, which represents a key zone of interest for future buy positions and also serves as a support zone for the euro.
The news background on Tuesday was essentially absent, apart from the ADP report, which rarely attracts strong market attention even in its monthly release. A speech by Christine Lagarde is also scheduled today, but the market has already shifted its focus to the Federal Reserve and is closely monitoring oil prices, which have started to rise again.
There remain many reasons for bullish activity in 2026, and even the escalation of the Middle East conflict has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant weakening of the US dollar last year, have not changed. In the coming months, the US dollar may periodically strengthen due to risk-off sentiment, but this factor requires ongoing escalation in the Middle East. I still do not expect a sustained bearish trend. The US dollar has received temporary support, but it is unclear what could drive sustained bearish momentum in the long term.
News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
On April 29, the economic calendar contains several entries, with the Federal Reserve meeting being the key event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be significant, particularly in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental background shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend cannot be considered invalidated or completed. Therefore, bulls may continue their advance in the near term unless geopolitical conditions shift toward renewed escalation.
Bullish traders had the opportunity to open buy positions based on the signal from imbalance 12, and the upward movement may continue toward the yearly highs. A new imbalance 13 has also been formed, which may generate another bullish signal in the near future. For uninterrupted euro growth, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward a stable resolution, which is not currently the case. However, there are also no increasing reasons for bearish pressure. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis, which indicates bullish dominance.
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