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The GBP/USD pair traded rather lethargically on Tuesday, and for two weeks now, the British pound has been essentially trapped within a sideways channel. Yesterday, the pair once again attempted to breach the lower boundary of this channel at 1.3476, but was unsuccessful. Thus, the flat continues, and the price may now target 1.3587. However, today and tomorrow, the influence of macroeconomic factors and fundamentals may increase sharply, as important events are expected in the Eurozone, the U.S., and the UK. The market has indeed been stubbornly ignoring significant non-geopolitical events for the past two months, but this cannot last forever. On the other hand, super volatility and significant movements should not be expected either, as the meetings of all three central banks are likely to conclude as forecasted. There are still no geopolitical news updates, and the world is sliding further into an energy crisis.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Tuesday. During the European trading session, the pair crossed the 1.3476-1.3489 area, but the sell signal proved false. In the American trading session, a buy signal formed in the same area, but due to low volatility, beginner traders could not achieve strong profits. However, the pair's growth may continue today, so long positions can be held.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, but has been trading in a range for the last two weeks. There are still no clear global reasons for the dollar's medium-term growth, so we expect the global upward trend to resume in 2026. Without a serious escalation in the Middle East, the dollar will no longer be able to sustain the growth it has seen over the last two months. Isolated events can still provoke their strengthening, but overall, the geopolitical factor has taken a back seat.
On Wednesday, beginner traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below 1.3476-1.3489, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. The buy signal from yesterday in the area of 1.3476-1.3489 allows for holding long positions targeting 1.3587-1.3598.
On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade at the levels of 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3476-1.3489, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. Today, in the UK, no significant reports or events are scheduled, while in the U.S., the FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell's final speech, and the durable goods orders report are scheduled. All the most interesting events are planned for the American session.
Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.
Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
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