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The test of the price at 1.3483 occurred when the MACD indicator had already declined significantly from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.
Yesterday, the data showing an increase in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 92.8 points supported the dollar, leading to a sharp decline in the British pound. This indicator, reflecting American consumers' optimism about the economy, exceeded analysts' expectations and provided an additional boost to dollar bulls. The strengthening of the U.S. currency, in turn, triggered market sell-offs, with the British pound facing particular pressure.
Today, the British trading platforms are expected to be quiet due to a lack of fresh statistical information. This situation could potentially contribute to renewed pressure on the GBP/USD currency pair. The lack of relevant data will force the market to rely on broader global economic trends and the dynamics of other major currency pairs. In this case, the focus will be on the upcoming FOMC meeting, so active buying of the pound is unlikely—at least until the committee's decision and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech are published.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3509 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3530 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3530, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A strong rise in the pound can only be anticipated after good news from the Middle East. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3493 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3509 and 1.3530 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3493 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3470 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3509 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3493 and 1.3470 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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