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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1666, and bearish pressure persists on Wednesday. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some growth toward the Fibonacci level of 50.0% – 1.1745. A consolidation below 1.1666 would increase the likelihood of further euro decline toward the next corrective level of 23.6% – 1.1568.
The wave structure on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke six previous peaks, while the latest downward wave did not come close to the previous low. A temporary truce between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish." In the near future, the geopolitical backdrop may worsen again, which would give bears more strength and confidence. However, breaking the "bullish" trend would now require two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low.
On Tuesday, the news background was again quite weak—essentially nonexistent. Traders could only note the ADP weekly report, according to which the number of new jobs increased by 39,000, roughly in line with the previous week. However, this report is considered so "important" that the U.S. Bureau of Statistics does not even provide forecasts. Overall, the market showed no interest in this release. The same can be said about the U.S. consumer confidence report, which rose to 92.8 points. However, today the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting in the U.S. will conclude, and the market has fully shifted its focus to this event. Despite the fact that traders do not expect any changes in policy parameters, the meeting is still considered important—not because of major expectations, but because it will be the last one for the current chairman, Jerome Powell. It is extremely unlikely that Powell will make any loud statements about future policy changes at his final meeting. Most likely, he will step down calmly and leave the leadership of the Fed and the choice of future direction to the new president, Kevin Warsh. Thus, I do not expect significant market turbulence this evening.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the Fibonacci level of 61.8% – 1.1706. Thus, the growth process may resume toward the next corrective level of 50.0% – 1.1778. A consolidation below 1.1706 would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the corrective level of 76.4% – 1.1617. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 2,768 long positions and closed 12,538 short positions. Over seven weeks, the total advantage of the bulls disappeared, but the last two weeks indicate that bulls have resumed their offensive. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, while short positions amount to 176,000. The gap is widening again in favor of the euro.
Overall, in the long term, major players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war is only paused, not ended. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Fed or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran.
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On April 29, the economic calendar contains a number of entries, with the Fed meeting standing out. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be strong, but mainly in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.1745 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1666. These trades can be held open at least until the Fed meeting. If the price closes below 1.1666, positions can be held with a target of 1.1568. I recommend buying on a rebound from 1.1666 with a target of 1.1745.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.2082–1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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