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The price of gold has halted its three-day decline after the U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday, split in opinions, maintained interest rates at the previous level and indicated that the war with Iran clouds economic prospects. This decision has reinforced the status of the precious metal as a safe haven.
Despite the Fed keeping rates unchanged, the meeting minutes revealed internal disagreements among committee members. Some expressed concerns about inflation risks, which could hint at future rate hikes. In the short term, the Fed's stance has pressured gold prices. However, the prevailing majority seems to lean towards a wait-and-see position. In times of uncertainty, gold traditionally attracts investors seeking protection against potential inflation and economic instability.
An additional factor putting pressure on gold is the escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Military actions are affecting one of the key oil producers, inevitably raising concerns about the stability of global markets and potential increases in energy prices. Such events typically lead to sharp price increases, necessitating a response through interest rate hikes, making gold a less attractive non-yielding asset.
Currently, the price of gold remains stable at around $4,580, recovering from yesterday's decline. April is expected to mark the second consecutive monthly decline in gold prices, as the conflict in the Middle East drives a sharp rise in energy prices.
As I mentioned earlier, the decline has been exacerbated in recent days, as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, and energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are virtually at zero. Since the war began at the end of February, gold has fallen by approximately 13%.
Latest data from the World Gold Council, funded by producers, shows that central banks increased their gold reserves in the first quarter at the fastest pace in over a year, as falling prices triggered a wave of purchases that more than offset sales from several institutional investors.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,607. This will allow targeting $4,656, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,708. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to regain control at $4,546. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to a low of $4,481, with the potential to reach $4,432.
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