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The April 2026 Federal Reserve meeting was the most divided since 1992. Miran (the "dovish" wing) pushed for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan (the "hawkish" wing) objected to the phrase "additional adjustments," arguing it would signal cuts ahead. They preferred a "neutral" phrasing, warning that energy-driven inflation could necessitate further tightening.
This was Jerome Powell's final press conference as Fed chair — his term ends May 15. In his remarks, he reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to hold the current course until inflation returns to 2%. Powell also noted that the regulator must base decisions on macro data rather than political slogans. Follow the link for more details.
US equity indices closed lower yesterday: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 each lost 0.04%, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.57%. Oil jumped to its highest level in nearly four years amid rising pessimism about resolving the Middle East conflict and following the Fed decision. Brent crude rose to $126.41 before pulling back to about $125, extending its nine-day bullish run.
Nasdaq 100 futures fell by about 0.3% after earlier gains of roughly 1.1%, driven by strong reports from Alphabet and Amazon. Other equity gauges weakened: the MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropped by 1.5%, and European shares are set to open about 1% lower. Bonds dipped as higher oil and firm Fed rhetoric dented demand for fixed income, and the 10-year JGB yield hit its highest level since 1997. Follow the link for more details.
If someone had said two months ago that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed through the end of April, Wall Street would have painted a bearish scenario for US equities. Yet the S&P 500 is setting records and acting as if the Middle East conflict is behind it. Meanwhile, other markets continue to signal macro risks, and Brent has already traded above $120.
Investors are effectively shrugging off the oil shock by leaning on strong corporate results. The Magnificent Seven have rallied by more than 20% off March lows, and their earnings are expected to rise about 19% in Q1 and 25% in Q2. An AAII survey shows that retail bulls now outnumber bears for the first time since February 12. Follow the link for more details.
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