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Yesterday, major US equity indices once again closed with sharp gains. The S&P 500 rose by 1.46%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 2.02%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 1.44%. Global equity markets hit fresh record highs amid optimism that the United States and Iran are approaching an agreement to end the conflict.
Investors are clearly watching diplomatic efforts with hope, viewing a mutually acceptable deal as a key factor for stabilizing the geopolitical backdrop. Positive expectations of easing tensions are supporting capital inflows into exchanges. Markets are now awaiting Iran's response, which is expected within the next 24 hours. Follow the link for more details.
The S&P 500 posted a second consecutive record high following comments from Donald Trump that the war in the Middle East would end soon and that a deal would be reached before his meeting with Xi Jinping in the week of 15 May. Investors appear unconcerned about the deal's specifics — even the prospect of Iran retaining a nuclear program is viewed as likely to depress oil prices and limit the risk of a renewed inflationary impulse.
For a long time, US equities reacted sensitively to oil. At one point, however, the S&P 500 broke its correlation with Brent crude, which briefly turned negative. Markets increasingly appear to have priced in an end to the Middle East confrontation as the base case and were not deterred even by Tehran's breach of the ceasefire. Follow the link for more details.
Tuesday, May 5, 2026, may enter the history books as the day of the swiftest and most inexplicable reversal in US foreign policy. In the afternoon, speaking to reporters at the White House, Secretary of State Marco Rubio formally brought Operation Epic Fury, launched against Iran in late February, to an end, declaring that combat operations were concluded and would not resume.
The US then pivoted to a humanitarian mission called "Project Freedom," intended to provide physical escort for merchant vessels through the mined and blocked Strait of Hormuz. The world breathed a sigh of relief, believing the maritime artery would finally reopen. That diplomatic triumph lasted only a few hours: later that evening, Donald Trump published a post that effectively annulled the State Department's and Pentagon's statements. Follow the link for more details.
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