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The test of the price at 156.61 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair only decreased by 15 pips.
Last Friday, the US dollar declined despite positive US employment data. Although the number of jobs created in the non-farm sector exceeded forecasts, traders focused more on the situation in the Middle East.
Considering that the Bank of Japan did not conduct currency interventions today, as it had in recent weeks, one can expect further recovery of the USD/JPY. However, the situation is escalating amid the rapid deterioration of US-Iran relations.
The yen acts as a weak link in this dynamic. The escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict will inevitably intensify the energy crisis, negatively impacting Japan's economy, which relies on energy imports. This, in turn, undermines confidence in the yen and stimulates further weakening of its position against the US dollar.
In the absence of interventions by the Bank of Japan, the trend of USD/JPY strengthening will persist. Investors are likely to prefer safer assets, while demand for the dollar will increase amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 157.20 (green line on the chart), with a target at 157.55 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 157.55, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.98 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 157.20 and 157.55 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.98 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.63 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers may return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.20 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 156.98 and 156.63 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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