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Yesterday, US equity indices ended higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.88%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.55%.
Today, however, futures on global equity indices reversed sharply lower. Investors who had largely ignored oil above $100/bbl and elevated inflation prints appear to be asking an uncomfortable question: has the rally gone too far?
The MSCI Asia Pacific index tumbled by almost 2%. South Korea's KOSPI, a key proxy for AI-related investment, plunged by roughly 5%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.8%, and European markets opened more than 1% lower. The US dollar rose for a fifth consecutive day, reaffirming its safe-haven status amid Middle East turbulence.
Oil remains the main trigger. Brent broke $107/bbl after US President Donald Trump said the US does not intend to open the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, however, he softened his language, saying that the US would like the strait to be open. Mixed signals have only amplified market nervousness.
The bond market reacted forcefully. Two-year US Treasury yields climbed by four basis points to 4.06%, hitting a 14-month high. Ten-year yields also rose by four basis points to 4.53%. In Japan, 20-year JGB yields moved up to 3.61%, a level not seen since 1996. Rising global yields are adding pressure to equities by making financing more expensive and improving the relative appeal of bonds.
Markets have fully priced out Fed rate cuts for this year and are beginning to factor in a real chance of hikes by year-end. With oil above $100, the question of how long equities can ignore inflationary risk is becoming more pressing.
The Trump–Xi summit added uncertainty rather than clarity. Xi spoke of "new relations" and "many outcomes," but concrete details remain scarce. Tension over Taiwan persists, and the Iran issue appears not to have been substantively addressed — a disappointment for investors hoping for progress on Middle East de-escalation.
As for commodities, gold fell by 1.3% to below $4,600/oz. Sterling weakened for a fifth straight day amid a fresh round of political turmoil around Prime Minister Starmer.
Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,474. Doing so would validate further upside momentum and open the path to $7,494. Maintaining control above $7,518 would strengthen buyers' position. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,451 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,427 and open the way to $7,404.
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