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The euro/dollar pair has settled in the 1.16 area after breaching support at 1.1690, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. For the previous five weeks, the pair had traded in the 1.17 band, reflecting indecision between buyers and sellers. Recent geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, however, have favored bears in EUR/USD.
In my view, the downward move can be attributed to three interrelated fundamental factors. First, markets were disappointed by the outcome of President Donald Trump's visit to China. Second, traders are increasingly worried about rising tensions between the United States and Iran. Third, hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve have strengthened. Together, these forces allowed sellers to push EUR/USD out of the 1.17 range and to establish a foothold below 1.1690.
On geopolitics, market participants had placed high hopes on Mr. Trump's trip for substantive agreements between Washington and Beijing on trade, investment, and wider geopolitical detente. The actual outcome was more symbolic than strategic. Even targeted deals fell short of market expectations. For example, Boeing shares fell despite an announced purchase of 200 aircraft by China because investors had hoped for a far larger order — perhaps up to 500 737 Max and additional wide-body jets. The announced deal was therefore seen more as a political compromise than a decisive commercial win for Boeing.
Crucial systemic issues were not resolved. Statements amounted to talks of "stabilizing relations," while core disputes — Taiwan, Iran, tariff policy and technology controls — remain unresolved. By the time Mr. Trump left Beijing, no concrete, wide-ranging commitments had been reached.
The disappointing China visit coincided with mounting US-Iran tensions. The president said yesterday that his patience with Tehran "is shortening rapidly" and urged Iran to reach a deal "as quickly as possible", reiterating that the United States will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Two days earlier, senior CNN sources reported that Mr. Trump is increasingly seriously considering renewed military strikes on Iran amid stalled diplomacy.
Iran has insisted on its own conditions: sanctions relief, release of frozen funds, compensation for damages, and formal recognition of its sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz. Today Iran's vice president, Mohammad Reza Aref, declared the strait "Iran's property" and said Tehran would never give it up.
As noted, Mr. Trump's China visit did little to reduce tensions or advance settlement of the Middle East conflict. Bloomberg reported that the White House made clear it wanted Beijing to pressure Tehran into talks. China, for its part, took a cautious stance: the foreign ministry reiterated that issues related to Iran's nuclear program should be resolved diplomatically.
In short, the situation remains precariously close to a resumption of military scenarios.
Against this background, market expectations have shifted. Traders now anticipate the Fed may keep rates on hold at least through year-end and are also discounting the possibility of tighter policy in the second half. The CME FedWatch tool shows about a 20 percent chance of a rate increase at the September meeting. April CPI and PPI releases, which showed accelerations in headline and core inflation, have strengthened the case for potential tightening.
This fundamental backdrop supports continued weakness in EUR/USD. Technicals corroborate the view. On the four-hour chart the pair sits below all Ichimoku lines, which have produced a bearish "parade of lines" signal. The price has also broken below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, signalling a preference for short positions. The nearest downside target is 1.1590, the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku Kumo cloud.
Trading note: buyers need to retake 1.1660 to target 1.1680. A move beyond that could open a path to 1.1705 and, with further momentum and institutional support, toward 1.1725. On the downside, meaningful buying interest is likely only near about 1.1630. If bids are absent there, it may be prudent to wait for a fresh low around 1.1610 or consider long positions from about 1.1590.
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