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On Friday, gold (XAU/USD) continues its corrective decline from the May high. Prices have fallen to the $4,550 level, marking a more-than-weekly low amid sustained US dollar strength. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the US currency against a basket of major currencies, set a new monthly high.
This is happening against uncertainty over the US-Iran negotiation process, caused by substantial disagreements on Tehran's nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Dollar support is also reinforced by growing expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which reduces gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
In an interview with Fox News on Thursday evening, US President Donald Trump said Washington's patience with Iran is running out and urged Tehran to reach an agreement. At the same time, reports emerged that Iranian forces seized a commercial vessel off the UAE coast, heightening fears for energy shipments through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. These factors continue to support high oil prices.
Additional US inflation data published during the week, which exceeded forecasts, as well as retail sales figures, have strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed and continue to support the dollar.
In April, the headline consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year, while core CPI reached 2.8%. The producer price index (PPI) rose 1.4% month-on-month, taking the annual pace to 6.0%. At the same time, retail sales in the US grew for the third consecutive month, indicating resilient consumer demand despite rising inflationary pressures and reinforcing expectations of tighter policy from the regulator.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants price roughly a 40% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end. This supports dollar bulls and argues for further downside in gold. Additional pressure comes from India, where discounts reached record levels — up to $207 per ounce — after the import duty on gold was raised to 15% from 6%. As a result, dealers have to offer significant discounts versus domestic reference prices. At the same time, physical demand for gold in China remains high, keeping premiums at about $14–$20 per ounce above world prices. However, this factor is unlikely to materially support global prices amid ongoing geopolitical tension and inflationary risks.
Relations between the US and China appear to have stabilized after the recent summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, the Chinese leader warned that ill?advised moves on the Taiwan issue could lead to "clashes and even conflict" between the two countries. The second day of talks is underway in Beijing today, and the news flow may continue to cause elevated volatility in financial markets.
Meanwhile, investors are watching developments in the Middle East for short-term trading signals. Overall, the XAU/USD instrument looks set to finish the week in negative territory, and the fundamental backdrop remains tilted toward sellers.
From a technical viewpoint, a series of failed attempts to hold above the 20-day SMA has weakened buyers. A subsequent move down and a break of the main support at $4,500 would confirm the bearish scenario. Oscillators are negative, and bears have the advantage. However, the 200-day SMA is slightly upward-sloping, so over the long term, gold is likely to appreciate.
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