15.05.202617:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 15th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3336 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

Ahead, we are expecting the release of the Empire Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production data. Strong figures in these areas may signal rising business activity, increasing orders, and consequently potential GDP growth, which would support another rise in the U.S. dollar against the British pound. Better-than-expected data could strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy. On the other hand, if the figures come in weaker than forecast, this could raise doubts about the sustainability of economic growth, leading to profit-taking on long dollar positions at the end of the week, which would positively affect the GBP/USD pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3377 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.3416 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3416, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pound can be expected to rise today only after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3347 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3377 and 1.3416 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after an update of the 1.3347 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3311 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pound will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3377 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3347 and 1.3311 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.