19.05.202608:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USDJPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 19. Review of Yesterday's Trades in Forex

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 158.83 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair fell by almost 20 pips.

The US dollar slightly weakened against the yen after President Donald Trump announced the postponement of the military operation against Iran. However, this did not lead to any significant change in the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. Although Trump emphasized that the initial plans involved a large-scale attack, the proposals from allies in the Persian Gulf to continue the negotiation process prompted him to reassess the timelines. It is notable that this happens regularly, and markets react every time because everyone expects a reduction in geopolitical tension in one of the key regions of the global economy. Did this help the Japanese yen? Clearly not, as trading is still taking place around 159, which is a step away from the psychological level of 160 yen, from where the Bank of Japan will again begin active interventions aimed at strengthening the national currency.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 159.07 (the green line on the chart), aiming to rise to 159.35 (the thicker green line on the chart). At level 159.35, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant USD/JPY drawdowns. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 158.93 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 159.07 and 159.35.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level to 158.93 (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be level 158.61, where I plan to exit the short positions and open long positions immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers may return at any moment; it only takes a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 159.07 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 158.93 and 158.61.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.