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At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at $103.72, up 1.19% for the day and continuing an upward trend for four consecutive days. Markets continue to support prices, even amid signs of a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, as market participants remain interested in the "geopolitical risk premium" associated with potential supply disruptions.
However, the rise in crude oil prices may slow following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on Monday to suspend the planned military attack against Iran. This decision was made based on calls from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for regional de-escalation.
Trump noted that serious negotiations are currently underway with Tehran, but also warned that the U.S. is prepared to launch a large-scale military operation if these talks fail. This stance continues to keep nervousness in the energy markets, as the recent escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran has led to significant price increases.
Concerns regarding the Strait of Hormuz also provide support to the market. This strategically important waterway is a key route for global oil flows, while Iran's nuclear program and sanctions continue to pose serious obstacles to achieving a long-term agreement.
Regarding demand, India has announced an increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 87 and 91 paise per liter, respectively, in an attempt to offset losses caused by rising global oil prices. As India ranks as the third-largest oil importer in the world, investors are closely monitoring changes in demand in the country.
Bank analysts continue to highlight long-term risks of declining prices. Rabobank suggests that the growing fragmentation of the oil market could put pressure on prices in the future, especially following the UAE's exit from OPEC. Meanwhile, ING emphasizes that the market remains highly sensitive to news regarding Iran and global supply risks.
From a technical standpoint, the nearest target for oil is $105.00. If this level is surpassed, the next obstacle will be the range of $107.00-$107.20. Oil is trading above significant moving averages. Oscillators are positive, thus bulls have the advantage, with the path of least resistance being upward.
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