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The direction of global financial markets last week was determined exclusively by geopolitical factors, completely eclipsing the AI story, macro data, and central bank rhetoric. A marked optimistic shift was recorded among investors. Market participants are actively pricing in a near-term diplomatic outcome to the three-month armed confrontation. The change in sentiment was driven by reports of a draft 60-day memorandum that would not only extend the current ceasefire but also lay the groundwork for full de-escalation.
The Strait of Hormuz is the key element of the compromise and has been the main source of nightmares for the global economy throughout the conflict. Under the draft, Tehran would fully lift restrictions on commercial shipping, clear the channel of underwater mines, and abandon the idea of charging transit fees. In return, Washington promises a phased rollback of its maritime blockade and an easing of sanctions on Iranian hydrocarbon exports — measures intended to remove the threat of a prolonged energy crisis.
Exactly three months have passed since the first strikes on targets in Iran, and the White House now reports that the parameters of a peace deal are largely agreed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared details of a recent closed meeting in which President Trump reportedly offered Tehran generous terms, threatening that, if Iran refuses, he would deploy the "guy on my left" — a remark that, by Hegseth's own admission, saw the minister suspected of leftist political views for the first time in his life. At the same time, the Pentagon chief stressed that the actual operational situation in the strait is fully controlled by US forces, contrary to any Iranian claims.
Hegseth confirmed that the US military is ready to resume combat immediately if Iran attempts to return to nuclear weapons development, while also noting constructive progress in talks. Speaking at the Asian security forum, the Pentagon chief praised Pakistan's mediation role, calling relations with Islamabad a genuine friendship. He also identified India as a critically important balancer in South Asia. He issued an official clarification declaring any separate shipowners' agreements with Tehran to pay transit fees unlawful, since any financial transfers to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remain strictly prohibited.
In response, Iranian legislators in the Majlis presidium announced they will soon adopt a sovereign law intended to legally cement Iran's total control over the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The US defense establishment stands ready to resume massive strikes on Iranian territory if the current diplomatic round over Iran's nuclear dossier fails. Speaking on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the White House would withdraw from negotiations without hesitation if the Islamic Republic rejects tight limits on its nuclear program.
Referring to a recent direct conversation with Donald Trump, the minister conveyed the president's position: Washington wants exclusively a great deal that guarantees Iran has no nuclear weapons; otherwise, Tehran will have to deal with the Pentagon chief standing to the right of the American leader. Hegseth emphasized that US arsenals accumulated in the region and worldwide are more than sufficient to pursue a forceful scenario, and the tough statements followed an emergency meeting between Trump and security officials in the White House Situation Room. Meanwhile, the IRGC continues to demonstrate real operational control over the key maritime artery.
IRGC command officially reported the transit of 28 commercial vessels through the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, including:
All these vessels in the past 24 hours requested the appropriate permission from Iranian authorities and coordinated their routes with the IRGC Navy. Just days earlier, on May 28, a further 26 civilian vessels received the same green light from Tehran. Iranian military officials uncompromisingly declare that prior approval of transit parameters through the Strait of Hormuz is a mandatory rule, and any attempts to transit under alternative arrangements will be treated as deliberate security violations, prompting immediate forceful interception of offending vessels by the IRGC.
The prevailing geopolitical stalemate has forced leading commodity market experts to radically revise their 2026 hydrocarbon price forecasts for the third time since the February strikes. According to a fresh May survey by Reuters of 33 prominent economists, the full restoration of disrupted energy flows will take many months. And while current prices have pulled back somewhat from the four-year extremes ($126.41 for Brent) recorded at the panic peak after the first airstrikes, they remain at levels painful for the global economy.
Institutes such as the EIU believe that absolute historical records from 2008 (~$147/bbl) are unlikely to be exceeded in 2026. Nevertheless, a moderate price rally is all but guaranteed at least through July while the Iranian conflict remains frozen in a fragile ceasefire with the Strait of Hormuz effectively sealed. Dry numbers from Kpler illustrate the scale of the shock:
Banking group NORD/LB notes that global trade will not return to pre-crisis logistical parameters before the end of 2026 even if a durable peace is signed, leaving the global economic system facing a structural supply shortfall in a colossal range of 0.5–8.0 million b/d. Such a sharp supply squeeze is occurring against an obvious cooling in global demand, driven by deteriorating macro indicators, downgrades to world GDP forecasts, and high resource costs.
In May, OPEC analysts revised their annual oil consumption growth estimate down to 1.17 million b/d (previously 1.38 million b/d). The US Department of Energy recorded a net demand decline of 420,000 b/d. To compensate for rapidly shrinking commercial stocks, seven key OPEC+ producer states may agree at their planned June 7 meeting to a symbolic production quota increase for July. However, UniCredit sensibly notes that any new quotas will likely remain paper-only. The key constraint is not cartel bureaucracy but the physical impossibility of pushing additional volumes through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, which would make any July exporter agreements purely declarative.
Fresh macro data recorded a sharp pick-up in PCE inflation for April to 3.8% year?on?year, the deepest price overheating since May 2023. Core PCE also hit a multi-month high at 3.3%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023. The Fed's principal inflation gauge now runs at nearly twice the regulator's 2% target, confirming the return of powerful price pressures. Against this backdrop, the head of the Kansas City Fed warned colleagues at a policy conference in Iceland not to indulge in dangerous illusions, urging them not to treat the current energy shock as transitory or benign.
Jeffrey Schmid stressed that monetary authorities must not relax now, and hinted at readiness to initiate a new tightening round — not only higher policy rates but also a more aggressive balance sheet reduction. Next month's FOMC meeting will most likely end with the policy rate held in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Yet investor sentiment has shifted dramatically:
While some Fed officials still hope that inflation will fade naturally once the conflict that President Trump triggered with Iran ends, the real economy shows stubborn inertia. High gasoline prices continue to erode US consumers' purchasing power, while domestic oil and gas firms resolutely refuse to ramp up production. Jeffrey Schmid noted that, in private consultations with energy-sector CEOs, he observed extreme caution and tight capital-management discipline.
Business is unwilling to invest in new drilling under severe price uncertainty, despite resilient growth elsewhere in the economy and a balanced labor market amid the AI transformation. At the same time, the White House suffered a powerful domestic political blow. New YouGov polling shows that President Trump's approval rating has plunged to a historic low. Financial markets continue to react feverishly to Middle East geopolitical swings, exhibiting highly unstable dynamics.
The main anomaly last week was the dollar's paradoxical behavior. The US dollar showed surprising resilience to external shocks, ignoring traditional down-triggers such as falling oil prices and hopes for a near-term US-Iran framework deal. Equally, it failed to mount a sustained rally, held back by lingering uncertainty over the final terms of any agreement.
June 1, 02:50 / Japan / ***/ Capital Expenditure, Q1 / prev.: 2.9% / actual: 6.5% / forecast: 4.1% / USD/JPY – up
Japanese companies significantly increased capital spending by the end of Q4 last year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of solid growth. The main investment impulse came from the non-manufacturing sector, driven by construction and real estate. In manufacturing, momentum stalled due to weaknesses in machinery and IT. The Q1 report projects a moderate slowdown in investment growth. If the actual data match the forecast, this will signal a decline in corporate spending and lead to yen weakness.
June 1, 03:30 / Japan / ***/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 55.1 / forecast: 54.4 / USD/JPY – up
Japan's manufacturing PMI in May eased slightly from April's multi-year high but remained in expansionary territory. Output growth was partly supported by precautionary stock building amid the Middle East conflict, despite some slowdown in new domestic orders. The mounting raw material deficit triggered:
The final May report is expected to show the index close to forecast levels. Confirmation of this scenario would validate the resilience of the industrial sector and weigh on the yen.
June 1, 04:45 / China / ***/ Markit Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.8 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.4 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's manufacturing activity showed record growth in April after a sharp surge in new orders. Logistics bottlenecks and raw material shortages linked to Middle East tensions remained a constraint, pushing purchasing and producer prices to multi-year highs. The May report is forecast to show a slowdown. If the final data confirm the forecast, this will signal cooling of the manufacturing boom, pressuring Brent prices lower and weakening the yuan.
June 1 / Germany / **/ Retail Sales, April / prev.: 0.7% / actual: -2.0% / forecast: -1.4% / EUR/USD – up
German retail sales fell by 2.0% year-on-year in March, well below long-term averages. The current contraction in retail turnover confirms weak domestic consumer demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The April report is expected to show a moderation in the decline. Confirmation of the forecast would indicate attempts at stabilization in retail and support the euro.
June 1, 09:00 / Russia / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final) / prev.: 48.3 / actual: 48.1 / forecast: 48.2 / USD/RUB – down
In April, Russia's manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.1, marking the 11th consecutive month of contraction. The negative trend was driven by:
Logistics costs rose sharply, forcing firms to pass on costs to end customers, although overall business confidence reached a multi-month high. The final May report is expected to show a slight rebound to 48.2. If confirmed, this would indicate stabilization efforts and strengthen the rouble.
June 1, 09:00 / United Kingdom / **/ House Prices, May / prev.: 2.2% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 2.9% / GBP/USD – down
Annual house price growth in the UK accelerated to 3.0% in April, hitting a multi-month high despite high interest rates and geopolitical tensions. The sector showed surprising resilience even as consumer confidence fell and the monthly price gain momentum slowed. The May report is forecast to show a modest slowdown to 2.9%. Confirmation would signal stabilization of housing demand and weigh on the pound.
June 1, 10:55 / Germany / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 52.2 / actual: 51.4 / forecast: 49.9 / EUR/USD – up
Preliminary estimates show Germany's manufacturing PMI falling below the neutral 50 mark to 49.9 in May, entering contraction. The decline reflects:
The final May report is forecast to confirm the index at 49.9. If realized, this will mark an official cooling of Europe's largest industrial economy and bolster the euro.
June 1, 11:00 / Eurozone / ***/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.4 / EUR/USD – down
The eurozone manufacturing PMI preliminary reading for May slipped to 51.4, recording the slowest expansion in three months. The slowdown in the private sector was driven by:
This was accompanied by job declines and sharp increases in selling prices. The final May report is expected to hold at 51.4. Confirmation would signal a deceleration of industrial momentum and weaken the euro.
June 1, 11:30 / United Kingdom / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 51.0 / actual: 53.7 / forecast: 53.7 / GBP/USD – volatile
Preliminaries indicate the UK's final manufacturing PMI for May held steady and beat initial expectations. Production acceleration was supported by precautionary buying and strong demand from the data center sector, despite logistics disruptions, job declines, and high inflationary pressure. The May release is forecast to confirm the 53.7 reading. Given ongoing structural risks, sterling is likely to remain volatile.
June 1, 16:30 / Canada / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.0 / actual: 53.3 / forecast: 52.0 / USD/CAD – up
Canada's manufacturing PMI showed a sharp improvement, the strongest in recent years, driven by a surge in new orders and exports as firms stockpiled amid Middle East tensions and higher transport costs. Corporate optimism reached a multi-month high. If the final data confirm a slowdown, the Canadian dollar will weaken.
June 1, 16:45 / United States / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 52.3 / actual: 54.5 / forecast: 55.3 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
Preliminary S&P Global data show US manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace since spring 2022. The upturn was accompanied by:
Despite some slowdown in new orders and longer delivery times, the final May report is forecast to confirm a high 55.3 reading. If realized, this will underscore the industrial upswing and strengthen the dollar.
June 1, 17:00 / United States / ***/ ISM Manufacturing PMI, May / prev.: 52.7 / actual: 52.7 / forecast: 52.6 / USDX – down
The ISM manufacturing PMI for the US remained at a local high last period. Internal components show mixed dynamics: faster new orders and a sharp rise in selling prices due to higher fuel costs were offset by:
The May release is forecast to slip slightly to 52.6. If so, this will signal cooling business optimism in the sector and weaken the dollar.
June 1, 17:00 / United States / **/ ISM Employment Index, May / prev.: 48.7 / actual: 46.4 / forecast: 46.6 / USDX – up
The ISM manufacturing employment index fell to 46.4, marking the 15th consecutive month of contraction. While the US labor market remains broadly resilient, this indicator points to a cautious hiring stance among manufacturers. The May report is expected to show a modest recovery; confirmation will support dollar strength.
June 2, 04:30 / Australia / **/ Building Approvals, April / prev.: 16.1% / actual: 9.0% / forecast: 12.9% / AUD/USD – up
Australia's building approvals rose 9.0% year-on-year in March, slowing from February's strong spike but remaining above long-term averages. The April report is expected to show an acceleration in approved projects. Confirmation will signal fresh investment in housing and lift the Australian dollar.
June 2, 12:00 / Eurozone / ***/ Headline Consumer Inflation, May (prelim.) / prev.: 2.6% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 3.3% / EUR/USD – up
Preliminaries indicate eurozone annual inflation rose to 3.0% in April, a multi-month high driven by a sharp jump in energy prices amid the geopolitical shock. Price pressure hit most major economies in the bloc, including:
Core inflation edged down slightly. The preliminary May reading is expected to show further acceleration. Confirmation will underline persistent inflation risks and strengthen the euro.
June 2, 17:00 / United States / ***/ Job Openings, April / prev.: 6.922m / actual: 6.866m / forecast: 6.870m / USDX – up
US job openings fell modestly to 6.866m in March, reflecting mixed sector dynamics — weakness in business services offset by gains in finance. Overall hiring flows remained steady amid stable layoffs. The April report is expected near forecast levels. Confirmation will signal labor market balance and support the dollar.
June 2, 17:00 / United States / **/ Job Cuts, April / prev.: 3.046m / actual: 3.171m / forecast: 3.100m / USDX – up
US voluntary quits rose to 3.171m in March, lifting the quits rate to 2.0% of employment. Broad increases across regions indicate high worker confidence in finding new jobs, notably in healthcare and hospitality. The April report is expected to ease; confirmation will point to a stable labor market structure and bolster the dollar.
June 2, 23:30 / United States / **/ API Crude Inventories / prev.: -9.1m bbl / actual: -2.8m bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
The American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.8 million-barrel weekly decline in US commercial crude stocks, alongside continued releases from strategic reserves. Gasoline inventories fell, and crude flowed out of the Cushing hub, while distillate stocks rose modestly. With no clear consensus forecast, a structural tightness in oil and fuel supplies will keep Brent volatile.
June 3, 01:45 / New Zealand / **/ Terms of Trade Index, Q1 / prev.: -2.1% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: – / NZD/USD – volatile
New Zealand's terms of trade index rebounded 3.7% in Q1, exiting negative territory. The increase reflects export prices outpacing imports, improving exporters' competitive positions. No forecast is provided for the current period; the release could generate high NZD volatility.
June 3, 02:00 / Australia / **/ AIG Manufacturing Index, May / prev.: 34.2 / actual: -24.4 / forecast: -24.0 / AUD/USD – up
Australia's manufacturing PMI rose to -24.4 in April, still deep in contraction. Despite local improvements in sales, employment, and new orders, firms faced sharply higher costs from fuel surcharges and ongoing structural labor shortages. The May report is expected to show slight improvement; confirmation will point to gradual industrial recovery and strengthen the AUD.
June 3, 02:00 / Australia / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 46.3 / actual: 50.7 / forecast: 47.7 / AUD/USD – down
Preliminaries show Australia's services PMI returned to contraction in May, easing to 47.7 amid Middle East tensions. Weakening demand cut new orders and prompted fresh job cuts amid rising price pressures. The final May release is forecast to confirm 47.7. Confirmation will signal deterioration in services and weaken the AUD.
June 3, 04:30 / Australia / ***/ GDP, Q1 / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 2.7% / AUD/USD – up
Australia's economy expanded 2.6% year-on-year in the previous period, a multi-month high driven by strong domestic activity. Q1 GDP is forecast to rise to 2.7%. Confirmation will validate the cyclical upswing and support the AUD.
June 3, 04:45 / China / ***/ Markit Services PMI / prev.: 52.1 / actual: 52.6 / forecast: 52.3 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's services PMI rose to 52.6 in April, supported by resilient domestic demand for the 40th consecutive month.
The May report is expected to show a slight slowdown. Confirmation will cool Brent and weaken the yuan.
June 3, 09:00 / Russia / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 49.5 / actual: 49.7 / forecast: 49.5 / USD/RUB – up
Russia's services PMI in April edged up to 49.7 but remained in contraction for a second month. Falling new orders amid clients' financial strain forced firms to cut jobs as VAT hikes raised costs, pushing business sentiment to multi-year lows. The final May release is expected to hold at 49.5. Confirmation will signal stagnation in the sector and weaken the rouble.
June 3, 10:55 / Germany / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.9 / actual: 46.9 / forecast: 47.8 / EUR/USD – up
Preliminaries indicate Germany's services PMI showed modest improvement but remained in contraction for a second month as demand softened and new orders fell amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressure. Firms faced a spike in costs and accelerated job cuts. The final May report is forecast to confirm 47.8. Confirmation will support the euro.
June 3, 11:00 / Eurozone / ***/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.2 / actual: 47.6 / forecast: 46.4 / EUR/USD – down
Preliminaries recorded a sharp drop in the eurozone services PMI in May — the largest setback for the sector in years. Price pressures linked to the Iran conflict drove:
Firms continued headcount reductions, and business expectations deteriorated. The final report is forecast to confirm contraction. Confirmation will weaken the euro.
June 3, 11:30 / United Kingdom / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final) / prev.: 50.5 / actual: 52.7 / forecast: 47.9 / GBP/USD – down
Preliminary data show the UK's services PMI plunged into contraction in May, hitting a multi-year low as demand and new orders fell amid geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty. The drop hit sectors tied to international travel hardest. Firms accelerated job cuts amid rising:
The final report is forecast to confirm a 47.9 reading. If realized, this will confirm the economic cooling and weaken the pound.
June 3, 12:00 / Eurozone / ***/ Producer Price Inflation, April / prev.: -3.0% / actual: 2.1% / forecast: 4.8% / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone producer prices returned to positive territory in March, rising 2.1% year-on-year after previous deflationary periods. Wholesale price dynamics are approaching long-term strategic averages seen over recent decades. The April report is forecast to show further acceleration. Confirmation will increase inflationary pressure at the production level and strengthen the euro.
June 3, 15:15 / United States / **/ ADP Private Sector Employment, May / prev.: 61k / actual: 109k / forecast: 116k / USDX – up
ADP data shows private sector employment rose 109k in April, a multi-month high. Services — notably education and healthcare — drove gains, while manufacturing expanded moderately due to construction. The May report is expected to show further improvement. Confirmation will reinforce the resilience of the US labor market and support the dollar.
June 3, 16:45 / United States / ***/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 49.8 / actual: 51.0 / forecast: 50.9 / USDX – down
US services PMI showed moderate expansion in May, supported by modest growth in domestic orders, while export demand fell sharply amid the Middle East conflict. Firms cut jobs as input and logistics costs hit record highs. The next release is forecast to show a slight dip; confirmation will signal cooling in services activity and weaken the dollar.
June 3, 16:00 / Canada / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 47.2 / actual: 49.2 / forecast: 49.6 / USD/CAD – down
Canada's services activity recovered toward the neutral mark, with new orders supporting the first increase in employment in a long time. High cost-push inflation remains, forcing firms to pass on higher costs to consumers. The May report is expected to show further improvement. Confirmation will bolster the Canadian dollar.
June 3, 17:00 / United States / ***/ ISM Non?Manufacturing PMI, May / prev.: 54.0 / actual: 53.6 / forecast: 53.8 / USDX – up
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI edged down but stayed in clear expansion. Current output was sustained by the fulfilment of backlogs even as new orders slowed. Tariffs and geopolitical shocks pushed up prices for:
The May release is forecast to show a partial recovery. Confirmation will indicate continued strength in services and support the dollar.
June 3, 17:30 / United States / **/ EIA Crude Inventories / prev.: -7.863m bbl / actual: -3.327m bbl / forecast: -6.013m bbl / Brent – up
US commercial crude stocks fell less than expected. However, inventories at the Cushing hub registered a multi-month drawdown amid increased refinery activity. Gasoline and distillate stocks showed a sharp decline, pointing to strong domestic demand. Analysts expect a larger drawdown next period. Confirmation will deepen the supply deficit and push Brent higher.
June 3, 21:00 / United States / ***/ Beige Book / interest rate – 3.75% / USDX – volatile
The Fed's Beige Book reflects persistent uncertainty over the policy path. Internal divisions are emerging: some officials favor tightening as inflation remains above target, while others call for rate cuts if labor conditions deteriorate. With no clear guidance, monetary policy uncertainty will keep dollar volatility high.
June 1, 03:30 / United States / Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell / USDX
June 2, 03:00 / Australia / Speech by Deputy Governor of the RBA, Ian Harper / AUD/USD
June 2, 08:50 / United States / Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari / USDX
June 2, 15:30 / United States / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester / USDX
June 2, 16:35 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic / EUR/USD
June 2, 18:00 / United Kingdom / Speech by Megan Greene of the Bank of England MPC / GBP/USD
June 2, 19:00 / Canada / Speech by Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers / USD/CAD
June 3, 11:30 / Japan / Speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda / USD/JPY
June 3, 12:50 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Supervisory Board member Frank Elderson / EUR/USD
June 3, 16:00 / United States / Speech by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr / USDX
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled over the period. Their comments typically cause FX volatility, as they may signal future policy intentions.
The economic calendar is available via the link. All figures are year-on-year (y/y). Where data is monthly, it is noted as m/m. Trade balance, exports, and imports are shown in the country's currency. The asterisk * shows (by increasing importance) the degree of relevance for instruments available on the InstaForex platform. Publication times are given in Moscow time (GMT+3:00). Open a trading account here. See also market video news from the InstaForex Group. To keep tools at hand, download the MobileTrader app.
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