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The USD/JPY pair begins the new week with positive momentum, returning to the 159.50 level and aiming for a four-week high of 159.65 established last Thursday. This is explained by a combination of factors.
Data released on Monday showed that capital expenditure by Japanese corporations remained flat in the first quarter, failing to meet market expectations and marking a sharp slowdown from the 6.5% year-on-year growth observed in the last quarter of 2025. This occurs against the backdrop of economic concerns arising from the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing disruptions in energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which weakens the Japanese yen. Additionally, rising demand for the US dollar also supports the USD/JPY pair.
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and tight expectations from the US Federal Reserve contribute to the further recovery of the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies, after hitting a two-week low on Friday.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) expanded their ground operations in Lebanon, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed an order for further troop deployment in Lebanon in the fight against the Iran-backed Hezbollah. This creates additional confrontation between the US and Iran on key issues and continues to maintain geopolitical risks.
Iranian officials stated that an agreement has not yet been reached and that proposals are still being discussed through Pakistani and other regional intermediaries. The main sticking points concern Iran's nuclear program and the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. This maintains a level of geopolitical risks and strengthens the US dollar's position as a reserve currency. Furthermore, a moderate recovery in oil prices after last May's low on Friday raises inflation concerns again and confirms the Federal Reserve's tight forecasts.
These expectations further support the dollar and the USD/JPY pair.
However, there are concerns that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the yen, limiting the opening of aggressive short positions on the yen and restraining further growth of the currency pair.
To better capitalize on trading opportunities, it is worth paying attention to the release of important US macroeconomic data scheduled for the beginning of the new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing Index, which will be published on Monday and may create significant momentum.
At the same time, the above-described fundamental situation seems to play in favor of USD/JPY bulls, although intervention concerns warrant caution in positioning decisions in anticipation of further growth.
From a technical standpoint, the pair has shown resilience below 159.00. By overcoming the resistance zone of 159.65, the pair will reach the round level of 160.00, after which bulls will challenge the May high. If unable to hold the round level of 159.00 and the 50-day SMA, the pair will find support at the 20-day SMA at 159.40. Afterward, prices may drop to the round level of 158.00. However, while oscillators remain positive, bulls have the advantage, and the path of least resistance is upward.
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