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The test of the price level at 159.51 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 25 pips.
Yesterday's news that Iran has suspended negotiations with the US due to violations of the ceasefire led to a rise in the US dollar. Markets, spooked by yet another escalation of regional tensions, sought refuge in traditionally safer assets, and the dollar was at the forefront of this move, as always. However, the bullish momentum in the USD/JPY pair slowed down as we quickly approached the psychological level of 160 yen, where the Bank of Japan frequently intervenes to strengthen the yen. Therefore, be extremely cautious with long positions at the current levels.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.79 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 160.08 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.08, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). It is advisable to resume buying the pair after corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.67 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.79 and 160.08.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.67 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.43 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Sellers could return at any moment—any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.79 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.67 and 159.43.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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