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Bitcoin has been in decline for nearly a month, losing approximately $17,000 in value during this time. Just over the last 24 hours, it dropped by $8,000. We warned that entering the liquidity pool would accelerate the decline, as pending sell orders and bulls' stop-losses would begin to trigger. And that's exactly what happened. We've also mentioned multiple times that the rise in Bitcoin over the last three months has been a correction, and the downward trend is set to resume. The signal for the end of the correction in the bearish FVG was not the most confident and unambiguous, but it was still formed.
The latest drop in Bitcoin could have been triggered by a series of factors that do not contradict the technical picture. For example, the company Strategy announced its first Bitcoin sale in the last six years, totaling $2.5 million. Essentially, Michael Saylor's company sold just 32 coins from the first cryptocurrency between May 26 and May 31. This is a pittance, but it sends a signal to the market: a company that has held to the principle of "never sell Bitcoin" for the past decade has renounced it. The initial sale was minimal, but subsequent sales could be much larger. It's worth noting that the average purchase price of Bitcoin for Strategy is around $78,000. Thus, we can confidently say that all investments in "digital gold," often financed by borrowed funds, are currently unprofitable.
Additionally, the chances of a full resolution to the war in the Middle East have declined again. The market has long awaited optimistic news, but received nothing but empty promises from Trump. Frankly, we do not believe that the failure of geopolitical negotiations triggered Bitcoin's decline. However, the combination of factors (technical conditions, Strategy's Bitcoin sale, a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and geopolitics) may have dealt a heavy blow to "digital gold." We also remind you that in recent weeks, we have consistently highlighted low spot demand and capital outflows from ETFs.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend and a correction against it. The trend structure is identified as bearish, and the CHOCH line remains at the level of $97,900. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to be completed. With no signs of a bullish trend shift, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a sell signal formed in the $79,500-$81,100 range, and on the hourly timeframe, the upward structure broke, providing confirmation. The price has entered the liquidity pool, thus accelerating the decline. This week, new bearish FVGs will likely form, enabling new short positions to be opened.
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has transitioned from forming a downward structure to a collapse. The CHOCH line supporting the downward trend is located at $78,000 and may be shifted lower in the coming days. We still see no fundamental basis for Bitcoin's long-term strengthening, and spot demand remains weak. Last week, liquidity was withdrawn from the last local peak, after which a new phase of decline began. Bearish patterns can be used to open new short positions, but the decline is so strong that it is better to utilize the daily timeframe now.
Bitcoin continues to establish a full downward trend and correction against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of the beginning of a long-term bullish trend. The signal in the near-term bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the area of $79,300 - $81,200, was formed and confirmed on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we are currently oriented towards the continuation of the downward trend, and bearish patterns remain a priority in trading.
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