04.06.202606:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on June 4? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only reports to note are those on retail sales in the Eurozone and jobless claims in the US. However, it is worth noting that a significant number of macroeconomic data have already been released this week. Almost all of it was ignored, or the market reaction was minimal. For instance, yesterday, positive reports from ADP and ISM were released in the US, while Iran launched new strikes on Kuwait. These three events collectively led to a strengthening of the dollar by several dozen pips but had no impact on the technical picture of either currency pair.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, noteworthy speeches will be delivered by Mary Daly and Thomas Barkin of the Federal Reserve, Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank, and Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England. Undoubtedly, speeches by ECB and BoE leaders generate interest; however, the heads of the central banks need to convey something important and unexpected for the market to react, especially under current circumstances. Note that the only central bank that can change its key rate at its next meeting is the ECB. The market is generally prepared for this scenario, yet ignores it because the euro is not rising. Therefore, if Lagarde indicates today the ECB's readiness for tightening, it is unlikely to provoke a market reaction. Following the April inflation report, there is no reason to expect a rate hike from the BoE, as inflation has slowed.

The geopolitical backdrop remains disappointing, as Iran and the US have once again moved closer to resuming conflict amid failed negotiations. The talks between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, and according to the US president, they are "very successful." However, no confirmations of diplomatic success have come from Iran. On the contrary, the parties regularly violate the ceasefire conditions, and this week, Tehran even expressed a desire to halt any diplomatic contacts with Washington.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade relatively weakly unless new messages emerge concerning the conflict and ceasefire in the Middle East. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1584-1.1591, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to success in trading over the long term.