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Bitcoin and Ethereum have not only begun a new phase of the downward trend but have also entered a new crash that we have anticipated over the last few months. Over the last four days, Bitcoin has lost 16% of its value, or $12,000, while Ethereum has dropped 14%, or $290. One can argue for as long as one wants about why the cryptocurrency market is plummeting again, but we have consistently warned about this over the past three months, even without accounting for geopolitics, inflation, or shifts in the Federal Reserve's sentiment.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant's CEO, Ki Young Ju, reported that a large-scale change in ownership is currently underway in the market. Ju noted record demand from institutional investors for both ETFs, yet Bitcoin has still been in decline for 9 months. Thus, we can draw the obvious conclusion that was evident half a year ago: institutional demand is good, but large capital cannot always save Bitcoin from falling, lend it maturity, and reduce volatility. The price is falling because aggregate demand is decreasing, while supply is increasing. In this case, what difference does it make how institutional capital behaves?
Ju also pointed out that, for example, the company Strategy is not selling its Bitcoins, and spot ETFs have absorbed approximately half a million coins over the past two years. Once again, demand may have increased among spot investors for exchange-traded instruments, but it has fallen among retail traders. In simple terms, one should not draw conclusions about an asset's long-term movement based solely on the involvement of large capital. Currently, about 40% of Bitcoin coins are at a loss. In our view, this may lead to even greater declines as investors might start liquidating their positions. However, CryptoQuant analysts believe that Bitcoin is thereby demonstrating its maturity and growth – an increasing number of coins are coming under the control of institutions, ETFs, and large investors.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of a long-term upward trend beginning. A signal in the nearest "bearish" FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the area of $79,300 - $81,200, has been formed and has received confirmation on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we are inclined to expect the continuation of the downward trend in the near term, and bearish patterns remain a priority in trading.
The daily timeframe continues to form a downward trend, and Ethereum has begun a new phase of the downward trend. The key selling pattern was and continues to be the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the movement prompted by this signal can be strong and long-lasting. We do not believe it is over, as there are no signs of completion of the downward trend for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near term, Ethereum may continue to decline, with no signs of the fall ending. We had previously identified a target level of $1,742, which has now been reached. This week, bearish FVGs will form on the daily timeframe, from which new short positions can be opened when signals are present.
CHOCH – break of the trend structure.
Liquidity – Stop-Loss and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
FVG – Area of price inefficiency. The price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side of the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return to and react from such areas as the main trend continues.
IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it but instead impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position with the goal of collecting liquidity to form his own position in the opposite direction.
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