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The price test at 1.3393 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited further downward potential for the pair.
The British pound, already under pressure due to uncertainty stemming from the situation in the Middle East, received an additional blow. A slowdown in economic growth of 0.1% last month, although modest, has become a warning signal for traders. Particularly concerning is the stagnation in industrial production, which points to weakness in the real sector of the economy.
The currency market reacted immediately. The British pound began to decline, reflecting growing concerns about the outlook for the UK economy. This decline, while not catastrophic, nonetheless increases pressure on the currency and may trigger further selling.
Looking ahead, attention will focus on several key U.S. events. In particular, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data are expected. These indicators typically reflect the state of the U.S. economy from the perspective of households and can significantly influence market sentiment.
However, in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, market participants are likely to focus primarily on developments surrounding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Any information related to progress in negotiations—whether direct talks, interim agreements, or renewed setbacks—could trigger significant movements in the currency market.
For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Today, I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3426 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3455 (thicker green line). At 1.3455, I will exit long positions and consider opening short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Any further pound appreciation today is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that MACD is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.
Buying the pound is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3400, while MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 1.3426 and 1.3455 can be expected.
Sell Signal
I plan to sell the pound after a breakdown below 1.3400 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3355, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Selling pressure may return in the case of strong U.S. data. Important: before selling, ensure that MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.
Selling the pound is also considered if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3426, while MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3400 and 1.3355 can be expected.
Chart Explanation
Important Notice
Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very cautiously. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is, by definition, a losing intraday strategy.
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