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EUR/USD continued to trade around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1578 on Friday and only managed to consolidate above it overnight on Monday, allowing traders to expect further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 1.1630 (50.0%). A rebound from the 1.1630 level would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 1.1578. Consolidation above 1.1630 would increase the likelihood of further gains in the euro toward the next retracement level of 1.1682 (38.2%).
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The latest completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave exceeded the previous peak. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish. Geopolitical developments improved significantly over the weekend after Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Iran, while both Iran and Pakistan confirmed this information. As a result, the conflict may be resolved in the near future, providing an opportunity for buyers to launch a stronger advance.
There were few important events on Friday, which was clearly reflected in trading activity. Several reports released in Germany and the United States had no noticeable impact on market sentiment. The most noteworthy developments occurred over the weekend. On Saturday, it was reported that Iran had once again refused to finalize an agreement with the United States, citing insufficient time to review all provisions of the deal. However, on Sunday, Donald Trump stated that an agreement had been reached, and on Monday morning this information was confirmed by Iran and Pakistan, which acted as a mediator during the negotiations.
At present, the agreement has not yet been formally signed. The signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday and is expected to take place in Geneva. This assumes that neither side escalates the conflict again before Friday or withdraws from the agreement at the last moment, which also cannot be ruled out. Until then, however, market sentiment is likely to remain positive. Oil prices are declining, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and risk-sensitive assets and currencies are gaining. If the agreement remains on track, Monday's market trend is likely to continue throughout the week.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and began moving higher within a downward trend channel toward its upper boundary. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.1667 would keep the pair inside the descending channel. Consolidation above the channel would allow traders to expect the formation of a full-fledged bullish trend, with initial targets at 1.1746 and 1.1824. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 15,878 Long positions and opened 19,056 Short positions. During the seven-week period in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the war involving Iran. Over the past eleven weeks, however, the situation has gradually stabilized amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East, and buyers have once again regained control. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 219,000, compared with 205,000 Short positions.
From a longer-term perspective, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Naturally, a wide range of global developments—none of which have been in short supply in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has only been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near term, movements in the euro and the dollar will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, or on economic data, and more on developments in Iran.
News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:
The economic calendar for June 15 contains two releases, neither of which is considered particularly significant. Therefore, the impact of economic data on market sentiment on Monday is expected to be very limited or absent.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from the 1.1630 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1578. Long positions could be opened following a rebound from 1.1514 with a target at 1.1578, or after consolidation above 1.1578 with a target at 1.1630. These positions may continue to be held today. New purchases are made when closing above the level of 1.1630 with a target of 1.1682.
The Fibonacci level grids are based on 1.1409 – 1.1850 on the hourly chart and 1.2081 – 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.
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