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Donald Trump is very persuasive. The markets have begun to doubt the deal's effectiveness between the US and Iran, yet the White House occupant stands firm. According to him, the agreement between the adversaries is already a done deal. Americans will not pay reparations to the Islamic Republic and are dealing with rational people in Tehran. They will not develop nuclear weapons. EUR/USD responded to his speech by rising, especially since macroeconomic data delivered a pleasant surprise for the euro.
Optimism among German investors increased in June, reflecting positive sentiment amid expectations that the conflict in the Middle East would end. The German economy may recover faster than expected. Furthermore, negative forecasts from the Bundesbank could become a driver for the EUR/USD rally. There is a high probability that actual data will exceed these forecasts.
Nonetheless, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel remains cautious. He stated that despite the deal between the US and Iran, the consequences of the Middle Eastern conflict will be felt for a long time. High energy prices are seeping into core inflation in the eurozone. If this process continues, the European Central Bank will be forced to resume its cycle of rate hikes.
Thus, the ECB does not rule out further increases in deposit rates and does not tie them to the conflict in the Middle East. This aligns with the futures market's view on another one or two acts of monetary tightening in 2026, providing support for the EUR/USD.
Will the Fed continue to maintain its position on increasing the federal funds rate? Derivatives expect monetary tightening this year, with a 58% probability. However, will the central bank confirm the futures market's opinion? The fate of the US dollar and its related currency pairs will depend on this.
There are plenty of scenarios for the first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership. The new Fed chair may repeat the White House mantra about the temporary nature of rising consumer prices. This could spark discussions that he aims to please Trump, resulting in a jump in EUR/USD quotes. Conversely, seasoned investors remember that Warsh was a "hawk" in the past. If he surprises markets with hints of an imminent federal funds rate hike, stock indices may fall, while the US dollar will strengthen.
Thus, EUR/USD could move in either direction, but the pending expectations from the US-Iran agreement's text serve as a holding factor. Until it becomes available, the main currency pair is likely to remain in a consolidation phase.
Technically, a bullish inside bar is forming on the daily chart of EUR/USD. Typically, its appearance indicates uncertainty. Traders can place pending long positions at 1.1610 and short positions at 1.1575.
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