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On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair continued its relatively weak upward movement. Throughout the day, speeches were delivered by the heads of the U.S. and UK central banks. Kevin Warsh stated that the "dot plot" charts will continue to be published for some time, and the Federal Reserve aims to bring inflation back to 2%. Andrew Bailey hinted that inflation might increase in the second half of the year, but a decline back to 2% is expected by 2027. In the former case, monetary policy was not addressed, while in the latter, Bailey suggested that the Bank of England has no particular desire to raise the key rate. The ISM manufacturing index for the U.S. was also released, showing a value of 53.3 points against expectations of 54.0. Thus, the decline of the U.S. dollar was fully justified, which, unfortunately, has not happened often lately. Nevertheless, an upward trend has been established for the pound, and the trend line supports the bulls.
In the 5-minute timeframe, one buy trading signal was generated on Wednesday. During the American trading session, the price broke through the 1.3259-1.3267 range, allowing traders to open long positions. On Thursday, these positions can remain open with a target of 1.3319-1.3331 until a sell signal is formed.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has begun to establish a corrective upward trend. The conflict in the Middle East is either not fully resolved or is on pause; the Fed has only declared a possible rate hike by the end of the year—which may not happen—and the BoE has no intention of tightening. We believe that the dollar has risen illogically in recent weeks, so we expect the British pound to recover.
On Thursday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3175-1.3180 if the price consolidates below the 1.3259-1.3267 area. Consolidation above the 1.3259-1.3267 area on Wednesday allows for remaining in long positions aiming for 1.3319-1.3331.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels can be traded: 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Thursday, there are no significant events planned in the UK, while the U.S. will release important reports on the labor market and unemployment. Therefore, notable movements are expected in the second half of the day as the market looks for reasons to buy U.S. dollars.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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