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US equity indices finished the day in different directions. The S&P 500 fell 0.01%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.80%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.14%.
Global markets recovered today after the technology sell-off, driven by a paradox: a weak US employment report eased expectations for an imminent Fed rate hike and bolstered risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 1.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.8%, and gold continued its rally. South Korea's KOSPI was a standout, jumping about 5% after a volatile start.
Many analysts note that technology fundamentals remain strong and that the market still underestimates the potential of memory chip makers and AI equipment suppliers. At the same time, cautious voices warn of a regime shift in the second half of the year. Invesco yesterday observed that the first half rode market inertia, with the AI wave lifting many companies indiscriminately. Going forward the environment is likely to become more selective, and investors will need to identify firms that can sustain profitability as production capacity expands and demand volatility emerges.
A key driver for all asset classes is the reassessment of Fed policy following the weak jobs report. Payrolls rose by only 57,000, prior months were revised down, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% largely because of a sharp drop in labor force participation. A softer labor market reduces pressure for an immediate rate increase and gives the Fed room to be patient. Traders trimmed bets on further tightening but still price at least one hike this year.
Gold rose for a third consecutive day, gaining 1.8% to trade near $4,195 an ounce, and is poised to end a four-week slide. Silver advanced 2.4% to $62.40. Brent crude stabilized around $72 a barrel amid low tanker activity in the Strait of Hormuz, a factor that has briefly supported supply while US-Iran talks continue.
All attention is now on the US employment report due later this week. If labor market indicators confirm strength, expectations for a September rate hike will firm, likely weighing on gold and supporting the dollar. If the data disappoint, arguments for a pause will gain force.
A technical picture for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to clear resistance at $7,518. That will indicate further strength and open a path to $7,544. Holding $7,574 will further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, buyers must defend $7,494. A break there will quickly push the index back to $7,474 and open the road to $7,451.
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