03.07.202613:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on July 3 (U.S. Session)

Trade analysis and trading recommendations for the euro

Due to low volatility, price did not reach the levels I identified during the first half of the day.

It is clear that the U.S. holiday calendar is affecting trading dynamics: due to Independence Day, U.S. markets are closed and stock exchanges are not operating. For the foreign exchange market, this results in a predictable pattern — the absence of major participants reduces liquidity and significantly dampens volatility. As a result, in the second half of the day, the dollar and the euro are likely to trade within a narrow range without a clear directional bias.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered if the price reaches the 1.1457 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1475. At 1.1475, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions on a reversal, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any euro growth today is expected to remain range-bound. Important: before entering a buy trade, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1441 price level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels 1.1457 and 1.1475 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches the 1.1441 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1424, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately reverse into a buy position (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important: before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1457 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1441 and 1.1424 can be expected.

Chart description

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades.
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area for profit taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades.
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area for profit taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, overbought and oversold zones should be taken into account.

Important note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making trading decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by definition, a losing strategy for intraday traders.