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Before the weekend, on Friday, gold in the XAU/USD pair gained over 1% as market participants reassessed the implications of a weak U.S. employment report and increasingly priced in a softer Federal Reserve stance despite ongoing inflationary pressure. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair was attempting to overcome the 20-day SMA at around $4160, having recovered from a daily low of around $4120.
Weak labor market data intensified pressure on the dollar and supported demand for gold. The June NFP in the U.S. increased by only 57,000 against expectations of 110,000, while the decline in unemployment was largely attributed to a drop in labor force participation to 61.5% - the lowest since March 2021.
The swaps market quickly adjusted expectations for Fed rates, and the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year is now estimated at only 46%.
Against this backdrop, the dollar index DXY finishes the week weaker, while 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remain around 4.485%, making gold more attractive.
The new head of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, did not provide specific guidance on future monetary policy but reaffirmed the priority of combating inflation. Next week, for better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the FOMC minutes, U.S. inflation data on July 14, and the ISM Services PMI and initial unemployment claims.
Additional support for the gold market came from central bank purchases: the World Gold Council reported that official reserves increased by 41 tons in net terms in May. This strengthens long-term demand for the metal even in the face of short-term volatility.
From a technical standpoint, gold has returned above $4100 but remains below the 200-day simple moving average, which keeps a bearish sentiment in place. However, the short-term momentum is shifting in favor of buyers, and the RSI indicates strengthening bullish pressure.
If the rise continues, the market may test the zone above $4200 - the area of the descending trend line $4225-$4250, after which the path will open to $4300 and the 200-day EMA and SMA.
To resume the decline, sellers need to bring the price back below $4100; otherwise, the $4050 and $4000 levels will be at risk, and below that, the annual low of $3941 and the $3900 mark.
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