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The GBP/USD currency pair also traded with minimal volatility on Friday, similar to the entire previous week, except for one day. It is probably unnecessary to mention which day that was. Only on Thursday, following the weak Nonfarm Payrolls report, did the market show a desire to trade, and the dollar declined. Overall, the British currency has recovered more strongly than the euro in recent weeks. In our view, neither the euro nor the pound has any basis for further decline, and there weren't even reasons for the last wave of falling. We have already listed the reasons a hundred times, so we will refrain from repeating ourselves.
In the upcoming week, there are no important events scheduled in the UK, while significant events in the U.S. include only the ISM Services PMI and the FOMC minutes from the last meeting. However, we wouldn't highlight the latter event. It should be remembered that FOMC minutes are published three weeks after the meeting, and the economic situation often changes within that timeframe. For instance, three weeks ago, nine members of the FOMC expected a rate hike by the end of the year. But not "a whole nine," but "just nine out of eighteen." How many monetary committee members now support policy tightening, considering the latest labor market data? There may be fewer now, but the minutes will display the central bank's hawkish mood.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on the Federal Reserve, stating that he will continue trying to fire Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court barred the president from firing Cook, finding no compelling reasons or evidence of wrongdoing. The situation with Jerome Powell has been ongoing for about a year, and the former Fed chairman surprised the president by remaining on the Monetary Committee for at least another two years before leaving his position. Thus, Trump could start a new war against the American central bank.
It is evident that Kevin Warsh and Stephen Miran will support monetary policy easing regardless of inflation and market conditions. However, they need the support of other bankers. To achieve this, someone from the current FOMC composition must be fired and replaced with more compliant officials. This is likely what Trump will be focused on in the near future. This is bad news for the U.S. dollar, as the last rise in its value was solely due to the Fed's tightening of monetary policy.
However, the market currently continues to favor the American currency, regardless of the circumstances. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the completion of the current downward impulse before discussing the prospects for the British pound. In our view, these prospects remain excellent, but the market has been trading sideways for a whole year, as seen on the higher timeframes. So far, any rise in the British pound has been limited, and the dollar can resume its growth at any moment.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 75 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Monday, July 6, we thus expect the price to move within a range bounded by 1.3273 and 1.3423. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice and formed two bullish divergences, suggesting a possible end to the downward trend.
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to weigh on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. The year 2026 is currently looking super positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and, more recently, the Fed's willingness to raise the key rate. However, there remains a range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 on the weekly timeframe within a four-year upward trend. Long positions with targets at 1.3423 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading on the downside with a target of 1.3184 is possible.
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