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As of the writing of this review on Monday, the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil is trading below the key level of $69.00. Investors continue to analyze global supply forecasts following recent OPEC+ decisions regarding production volumes. Despite a two-day price increase last week, oil prices remain near multi-month lows as market concerns about a potential global oversupply begin to rise.
Market participants are discussing OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. The main drivers of this increase in production are Saudi Arabia and Russia. These additional oil volumes are viewed as a sign of confidence in the region's stability, especially since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely returned to normal following recent disruptions.
However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to hold prices back from falling. Although tanker movements have generally normalized, market participants are closely monitoring the potential for escalating tensions that could impact this strategically important waterway, through which nearly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes.
Reports indicate that Iran has begun negotiations with several Japanese companies on resuming crude oil exports as part of a temporary lifting of U.S. sanctions. According to Reuters, the expiration date of the 60-year license under current negotiations between Tehran and Washington is August 21; potential buyers are requesting additional guarantees regarding the safety of shipping before making purchase decisions.
Overall, major financial institutions are exercising caution in their oil market forecasts. Analysts at Commerzbank believe that an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran, combined with the recovery of exports and additional increases in OPEC+ production, raises the risk of a global oversupply. Rabobank also notes that actual oil exports will depend on the safety of shipping in the Persian Gulf and warns that geopolitical tensions could further fragment the global oil market.
Similar conclusions are drawn by other financial organizations. Citi expects that by the end of the year, Brent crude will fall to $60 (compared to $72.03 at the time of writing), as fundamental market factors once again begin to dictate price dynamics following the easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs also believes that the oil market is entering a new phase of gradual price declines, despite temporary spikes driven by geopolitical events.
From a technical perspective, prices are trading below the key level of $69.00 and have found support at $66.90. If this support is not held, prices will accelerate their decline toward $63.00. If the price breaks above $69.00, it will encounter resistance at the 9-day EMA, with significant resistance at the 200-day SMA, after which bulls may have a chance. However, since oscillators are negative, bears currently have the advantage. With the relative strength index approaching the oversold zone, bears may consolidate their positions.
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