09.07.202612:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold Remains Under Pressure as Bulls Remain Hesitant

Gold (XAU/USD) is attempting for a second consecutive day to break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The U.S. dollar remains in a wait-and-see mode amid the absence of significant changes in the FOMC's monetary policy stance, providing some support for the precious metal. However, the renewed conflict between the United States and Iran has intensified inflation concerns and revived expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2026. This could limit further weakness in the dollar and restrain gains in the non-yielding precious metal.

The minutes of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed differing views among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates. According to the minutes, many FOMC members believe that the federal funds rate could remain at its current level or end the year slightly below the current target range. This comes despite weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released last week, which had only a limited impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize that inflation risks remain elevated and that some additional policy tightening may be required to return inflation to the 2% target.

In addition, traders continue to price in a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. This, together with the further escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, has discouraged bears from taking aggressive positions against the U.S. dollar.

In the latest developments, U.S. forces launched a new wave of strikes against Iran in response to Tehran's attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. In turn, Iran continued its attacks on U.S. military facilities and assets in Bahrain and Kuwait. U.S. President Donald Trump also stated that the ceasefire with Iran had come to an end.

These fundamental factors continue to support the U.S. dollar, suggesting that any attempts to push gold prices higher are likely to encounter selling pressure.

For better trading opportunities today, investors should focus on the release of the weekly U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report. Together with speeches by influential FOMC members, the data could strengthen demand for the U.S. dollar. At the same time, market participants should continue to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, as the ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a key source of volatility in global financial markets and may create additional trading opportunities for gold.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a short-term bearish trend, trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Momentum oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that bears continue to hold the advantage. The 20-day SMA continues to act as the key resistance level. A sustained break above this moving average would improve the bullish outlook and increase the likelihood of further gains. Immediate support remains at $4,050, followed by the psychological $4,000 level. A break below these levels would likely accelerate the decline toward the June low.