09.07.202613:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on July 9 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3413 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved up significantly away from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.

The absence of new data from the UK that could significantly influence the exchange rate allowed the pound to focus on general trends and sentiments, which are currently favorable to it. Additionally, we cannot overlook the ongoing uncertainty regarding the future monetary policy of the Bank of England. Against a backdrop of high inflation persisting in the UK, the market expects further interest rate hikes. This expectation, even without concrete confirmations, fuels demand for the pound, making it more attractive to traders seeking higher yields.

Today, the housing market and employment data will be in the spotlight, but the true center of attention will be the speech from FOMC member John Williams. Its importance has dramatically increased following yesterday's publication of the minutes, which indicated a shift at the Fed toward a more hawkish policy. Traders will be looking for confirmation in Williams' words that the regulator is indeed prepared to consider raising rates, which will significantly influence the short-term dynamics of the dollar. As for the figures, weekly jobless claims will provide a fresh snapshot of the labor market, while existing home sales will show how high rates are impacting demand in the real estate sector. Both metrics could adjust expectations, although they are overshadowed by the significance of the Fed representative's speech. In this situation, the British pound remains a hostage to the American narrative, and if Williams strengthens hawkish expectations, the GBP/USD pair may come under pressure, whereas a softer message may support the British currency.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3416 (the green line on the chart), with the target for growth at 1.3445 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3445, I will exit the buys and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pOINTs in the opposite direction from the level). A strong rise in the pound can be expected today with weak data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3390 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise towards the opposing levels of 1.3416 and 1.3445 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3390 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3360, where I will exit the sales and also open immediate buys in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound will return today with strong statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3416 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline towards the opposing levels of 1.3390 and 1.3360 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line represents the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line is the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line is the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line is the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit manually since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.