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The GBP/USD pair posted a fairly strong gain, which may mark the beginning of a bullish trend. The US dollar failed to strengthen last week despite two new escalations in the Middle East and the fact that negotiations remain suspended. Donald Trump has already revoked the authorization allowing Iran to sell oil under the peace agreement, while Iran has once again blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the period of relative calm and the negotiations have effectively come to an end. For now, traders do not believe that the conflict will escalate into a renewed war, as similar situations have occurred repeatedly in the past. Each time, the parties eventually returned to the negotiating table. The market did not react to the renewed geopolitical tensions, which I believe was justified. Today, however, bullish traders received an unexpected boost after US inflation fell to 3.5%. Recall that the previous month's reading stood at 4.2%, making the latest figure significantly lower. More importantly, the Federal Reserve may now be able to extend its wait-and-see approach and refrain from tightening monetary policy in September. By then, it should become clearer what stage the Middle East conflict has reached, where oil and gas prices are headed, and how inflation responds to the new energy and geopolitical environment. Therefore, I am not convinced that the Fed will necessarily proceed with monetary tightening.
It is also worth noting that the market initially expected US inflation to continue rising unless the FOMC intervened. Later, the risks of further price growth eased as oil prices declined to $70 per barrel. This week, however, oil climbed to $87, and the consequences of the latest escalation in the Middle East, together with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, could push prices even higher. Therefore, if events unfold according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil could return to the $100–120 level. In that case, any hopes of slowing inflation in either the United States or the Eurozone would quickly disappear. The market would once again have to revise its expectations regarding the monetary policy of both the ECB and the Fed.
The technical outlook pointed to a rise toward the 1.3322 level, which is exactly what occurred. The price first swept liquidity below the April 6 low and then below the March 31 low. Therefore, there were solid reasons to expect further gains in the pound. Given that the US dollar still lacks convincing drivers for a long-term upward trend, while it has already posted impressive gains in 2026, I believe the bears are unlikely to regain control. Last week also saw the formation of bullish imbalance 23, and the price reacted to it twice. As for bearish imbalance 21, it has been invalidated. Therefore, I expect either a continuation of the pound's advance or the emergence of new bullish signals, followed by another leg higher after a corrective pullback.
At present, the market remains highly cautious regarding the agreement between Iran and the United States, and recent developments have shown that this caution is fully justified. Exchanges of fire near the Strait of Hormuz continue to occur regularly despite the memorandum signed several weeks ago. The Fed previously triggered a strong rally in the US dollar, but I still do not see what could allow the bears to continue pressing their advantage. Can expectations of FOMC monetary tightening alone really sustain further dollar gains?
Tuesday's economic news supported both the British pound and the bulls. The inflation report came in softer than traders had expected, triggering a decline in the US dollar and forcing the bears to retreat. Kevin Warsh is also scheduled to deliver a speech today, followed by another appearance before the US Congress tomorrow.
Overall, the broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect nothing other than a long-term decline in the US dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the United States has not changed that outlook. Nor has the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the conflict has already passed its most intense phase. The Fed intends to raise interest rates in 2026, which is supportive for the dollar. However, it should not be forgotten that tighter monetary policy will slow the US economy and weaken the labor market. Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump to lead the FOMC in order to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy, something Jerome Powell was unwilling to deliver. In my view, any Fed tightening will not develop into a prolonged tightening cycle and is unlikely to have a lasting impact. Therefore, I believe any appreciation of the US dollar will be temporary rather than sustainable.
The economic calendar for July 15 contains two scheduled events, one of which I consider important. Therefore, the economic backdrop may influence market sentiment on Wednesday.
The long-term outlook for the British pound remains bullish. Following liquidity sweeps below the two most recent swing lows, the bulls have regained the initiative. The pound could still resume its decline toward the bullish trend invalidation level at 1.3007, but this would require fresh bearish signals. Imbalance 21 has already been invalidated, so there is currently no clear source for such a signal. The bullish case is supported by the two liquidity sweeps, as well as bullish imbalance 23. The market has already reacted to imbalance 23, and the next upward targets for the pound are the highs of May 1 and January 27 at 1.3656 and 1.3867, respectively.
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