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The U.S. dollar has lost all the advantages it gained earlier in the week following the escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.
The June inflation report from the U.S. delivered a significant disinflationary surprise to the market, coinciding with Kevin Warsh's first remarks before Congress. The overall Consumer Price Index rose by just 3.5% year-on-year, against a forecast of 3.8%, and slowed sharply from May's 4.2%. On a month-to-month basis, prices even fell by 0.4%, while a decline of only 0.1% was anticipated. The Consumer Price Index reflects inflation and directly influences rate expectations, so such weak data has noticeably weakened the dollar, undermining arguments for a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve.
For the euro and pound, this development has offered a tailwind. The slowdown in inflation has increased the chances of a more dovish stance from the central bank, narrowing demand for the dollar and allowing both European currencies to strengthen. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD regained ground amid the retreat of the US dollar, and subsequent movement was determined by how deeply the market reassessed its rate expectations after the release.
Today, in the first half of the day, attention for the euro will focus on the eurozone's industrial production data. This indicator reflects the dynamics of output at factories and plants in the region and serves as an important barometer of the real sector's condition and, through it, the overall health of the economy. Strong figures indicate resilience in business activity and indirectly support expectations for a more hawkish European Central Bank policy, which is in favor of the euro, while a weak result could, conversely, increase pressure on the currency. Therefore, good results could help the euro gain further against the dollar. If production exceeds forecasts, the EUR/USD pair will have grounds to continue its recovery in the first half of the day.
As for the pound, today's lack of UK fundamental data is unlikely to set a direction, leaving only the speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill on the agenda. Without fresh data on inflation, employment, or business activity, traders will have no usual reasons to reassess their positions, as these indicators typically guide expectations regarding the central bank's rate and determine the direction of the British currency. In their absence, the rhetoric of BoE representatives comes to the forefront, making Pill's words particularly noteworthy. In a calm external environment, GBP/USD has a chance for further growth in the first half of the day, especially since the pound is already supported by the dollar's weakness. Nonetheless, much will depend on the tone of Pill's speech, as hawkish points can strengthen the British currency, while a dovish message might cool its ascent.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to rely on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, it is advisable to adopt a Momentum strategy.
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