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A sudden pause in the US–Iran confrontation trimmed the geopolitical premium, sending oil sharply lower and correcting European gas, while supporting gains in gold and silver. At the same time, Nvidia announced partnerships in Japan and South Korea totaling more than $500bn, advancing the "physical AI" concept and a new Cosmos 3 Edge model. Microsoft released two in-house MAI models that can already cut GPU costs by up to 89% and reduce reliance on third-party AI providers. This note summarizes the details and outlines the potential market implications.
Oil prices tumbled early in the week as traders shed the accumulated geopolitical risk premium after almost two weeks of continuous US–Iran strikes, following signals from both sides that they are prepared to return to the negotiating table. Brent fell to about $91/bbl, WTI dipped below $84/bbl, and European natural gas corrected after several weeks of gains.
The retreat followed an apparent mutual cessation of hostilities over the weekend. Iran said there were no US strikes for a second consecutive night, and an Iranian military spokesman told state TV that, because the US halted attacks, Iran had also stopped its retaliatory strikes. Pentagon sources characterized the situation as a "pause," CNN reported.
White House Communications Director Steven Cheung said the president prefers a peaceful solution but underlined that it keeps all military options on the table if Iran continues to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. A regional official involved in mediation called the reciprocal pause "an encouraging sign that supports de-escalation efforts," adding that both sides aim to return to a temporary truce, under which Iran would allow shipping through the strait with fewer restrictions.
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Gold approached $4,100/oz on Monday as a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran entered its third day, easing inflation fears driven by rising oil prices that had pressured the metal for weeks. Silver posted an even firmer advance, climbing nearly 3% to around $59.85/oz.The rally followed two consecutive days in which both the US and Iran refrained from military strikes — an Iranian military spokesman confirmed on state television that Tehran had stopped its attacks.
The New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump decided last week to postpone (at least temporarily) plans to intensify the US offensive against Iran. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Ismaeil Baghaei said Omani officials visited Tehran over the weekend for talks on the Strait of Hormuz and described the discussions as "productive."
The de-escalation reduced the risk of a further oil price surge that had been feeding expectations of interest rate hikes. Just last week, money markets priced in a roughly 34% chance of a Fed rate increase at the July meeting, up from about 10% a week earlier. A sustained pause in the fighting can temper those tightening expectations and support non-yielding assets such as gold.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang spent the past two weeks deepening ties with industrial heavyweights across Asia: partnerships struck in Japan and South Korea aim to deploy artificial intelligence at unprecedented scale across manufacturing, robotics, and data centers.
During a two-day visit to Tokyo in mid-July, Huang met with executives from Toyota, Fujitsu, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fanuc, and Kioxia, positioning Japan as the ideal base for what Nvidia calls "physical AI" — technologies that allow machines to perceive and interact with the physical world.
In addition, Nvidia unveiled a new global model, Cosmos 3 Edge, and announced the formation of a coalition of Japanese industrial leaders that would work on a unified physical AI platform. The first phase of collaboration is expected to begin this year.
Huang said at the Tokyo presentation that the promise of physical AI is to combine Japan's mechatronic expertise with breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Hitachi and Yaskawa are also members of the coalition. Participants intend to connect Japanese factories to a single, unified platform by March 2027.
Microsoft has unveiled MAI-Image-2.5-Pro and MAI-Voice-2-Flash, its latest in-house AI models designed to accelerate a strategy of replacing third-party solutions from OpenAI and Anthropic across its product portfolio. The company says that, in production on select workloads, these models have already delivered GPU-cost reductions of up to 89% versus comparable OpenAI models.
The two additions expand Microsoft's MAI family to seven models first introduced at the Build developer conference in June. Microsoft frames the push as a step toward "long-term self-reliance" in AI.
According to Microsoft's official blog, MAI models are already in production across Bing Image Creator, PowerPoint, OneDrive, Dynamics 365, and Azure. Bing Image Creator now runs "fully on Microsoft technology," powered end-to-end by MAI-Image-2.5.
In PowerPoint, the new image-generation model cut GPU costs by about 84% versus OpenAI's GPT-Image-2. In Dynamics 365 Contact Center (used by clients such as T-Mobile and EasyJet), MAI-Voice-2-Flash lowered GPU costs by up to 89%.
Microsoft has begun routing tens of thousands of weekly Copilot requests in Excel and Outlook to MAI models instead of third-party solutions from OpenAI and Anthropic. "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately eliminate that cost," Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman told Bloomberg.
This shift creates clear market opportunities: Microsoft shares and stocks of cloud/AI-infrastructure suppliers could react positively to improved margins and lower operating costs. Conversely, companies that monetize compute capacity or sell third-party AI services may face pressure. Traders should monitor Microsoft, its suppliers and rivals, assess volatility, and be ready for sector moves.
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