31.07.202614:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Stock market on July 31: S&P 500 and NASDAQ resume gains

Yesterday, equity indices posted sharp declines. The S&P 500 fell by 1.66% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.62%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.19%.

Today, KOSPI surged by as much as 17% intraday, bouncing after a three-day sell-off, and a global tech rally gained momentum as investors returned to AI trades after this week's rout. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics each jumped by more than 23%, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing added 10%, and chipmakers were the largest drivers of gains in the MSCI Asia Pacific index. The Asian semiconductor index rose by 12%, on track for a record single-day gain.

Asian strength followed the largest rally in US chip stocks in over a year. Nasdaq 100 futures signaled further upside after the tech index broke a six-day losing streak, surging by more than 3% on Thursday. Futures were up roughly 1.1% today. S&P 500 futures also showed notable strength.

Earnings added a mixed tone to the market. Amazon jumped by 9.5% in after-hours trading on strong results, while Apple plunged by more than 6% after supply constraints worsened its sales outlook.

The chip rebound gave investors a respite after this week's sell-off, which was driven by concerns that massive AI capex may not generate commensurate returns. With the Fed decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh behind us, investor focus shifts to whether the recovery can hold after a mixed set of mega-cap reports.

FX and fixed-income markets also shifted. The yen weakened, giving back part of the intervention-driven gain after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. The currency retraced some of Thursday's largest one-day advance since 2024, which followed another round of Japanese FX intervention. The dollar index rose by 0.2%, snapping a five-day losing streak. The 30-year Treasury yield fell by two basis points on Friday to 5.19%, retreating from multi-year highs hit earlier in the week amid Fed-induced inflation concerns.

As for commodities, gold traded near $4,100/oz, while oil eased by 2% to roughly $87.30/bbl.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,495. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,518. Controlling $7,544 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,474. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,451 and open the way to $7,427.