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Gold (XAU/USD) remains within its monthly trading range and continues to look vulnerable after failing to consolidate above the psychologically significant $4,100 level.
Inflation risks, driven by heightened volatility in the oil market, strengthen the case for further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. This scenario favors the U.S. dollar, which is recovering after falling to its lowest level since June yesterday, while weighing on gold.
In addition, the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index declined by 0.1% in June, marking its first monthly decrease since April 2020. The decline was largely driven by a temporary easing of tensions with Iran, which led to a correction in fuel prices. On an annual basis, the index slowed from 4.1% to 3.7%, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index—the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation—rose by 0.1% month over month, compared with 0.3% in May, while the annual rate eased from 3.4% to 3.3%.
Nevertheless, turbulence in the oil market, fueled by the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran and concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies, suggests that inflation risks remain elevated. In recent days, the U.S. military announced the completion of a series of major strikes on Iranian targets in response to Tehran's missile attacks against coalition forces in the region. At the same time, Iran rejected Oman's proposal for joint (50/50) administration of the Strait of Hormuz, which would have granted Tehran partial control over the strategically important waterway and the right to collect voluntary transit fees.
The situation has been further complicated by Saudi Arabia's efforts to establish an international coalition to protect key shipping routes in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden from attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement. These developments increase the likelihood of a broader regional conflict, supporting the geopolitical risk premium and crude oil prices.
Investors are concerned that rising energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in more than an 85% probability of at least one additional rate hike before the end of the year.
Against the backdrop of elevated U.S. Treasury yields, the outlook for the U.S. dollar remains more favorable, encouraging capital outflows from the precious metal.
Today, traders should pay close attention to the upcoming University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, which could provide fresh trading opportunities.
For now, XAU/USD continues to trade within a multi-week sideways range as market participants await a new catalyst to trigger the next directional move.
From a technical perspective, gold remains under pressure, with the nearest resistance located around the psychological $4,100 level, while the key support is at the $4,000 level. At the same time, oscillators remain neutral, indicating continued sideways trading.
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