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Last Friday, US equity indices finished with solid gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.70%, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped by 1.00%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.53%.
Today, futures on US indices rose alongside European markets after a sharp fall in oil following President Trump's statement that new US–Iran talks had begun — a development that boosted hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures were up about 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.8%, marking a positive start to the month for Wall Street after a volatile July. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose by 0.4%, led by travel and auto stocks. Asian equities, however, fell on renewed weakness in South Korean chipmakers, underlining that the AI re-rating remains far from complete.
Brent plunged by 7.3% to $81.55/bbl after Trump said he had agreed to call off a planned strike on Iran following allied calls to pursue talks. Treasuries rallied across the curve. The 10-year yield eased by five basis points to 4.69% after hitting a multi-year high earlier in the week.
FX markets also reacted: the yen strengthened by 1.4% to 155.23 per dollar amid speculation about further interventions after coordinated intervention with US support last week.
Market focus is now squarely on progress toward a peace accord or, more importantly, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — until then volatility will persist, particularly with AI trading still the dominant theme.
As noted above, the AI narrative continued to drive Asian bourses. The regional semiconductor index fell by 1.5% as Samsung and SK Hynix each lost roughly 8%, offsetting gains among Japanese chipmakers such as Renesas Electronics and Kioxia Holdings. South Korea's KOSPI, a barometer of AI investment, fell by more than 5% after a record 18% surge on Friday. Japan's Nikkei eased, and the broader MSCI Asia index lost about 0.6%. Against that backdrop, Alibaba stood out, rising 6.5% in Hong Kong after unveiling a flagship AI model that analysts say rivals global leaders such as Anthropic's Fable. On Friday, Chinese DeepSeek also released a public beta of its V4 Flash API, demonstrating progress in agent capabilities.
Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,544. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,574. Controlling $7,607 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,495 and open the way to $7,474.
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